Originally Posted by
slocum
My question was about excess deaths total, regardless of the cause. We know about how many people should die worldwide per month of the year. If the actual death rate is higher than expected, then the increase must be explained. I would think that if COVID-19 wasn't killing people, then the number of deaths should be fewer than expected due to a decrease in traffic and work-related fatalities brought on by lockdowns. But the reality is that considerably more than the expected number of deaths have occurred, and even more than we would expect just due to COVID, if articles like
this one are to be believed.
Originally Posted by
Kallie Bloomquist
From the NYTimes this AM:
Tali Elfassy, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Miami, said that while the case fatality rate is lower for younger people, there has recently been a huge shift in the age distribution of those getting infected — from middle-aged and older individuals, to younger adults.
“Even if the majority of people who are dying from Covid are older individuals, the fact that we have this demographic shift toward younger people becoming infected is going to give us an increase in deaths among younger people,” she said.
Further:
"Nationally, the share of all deaths that occur in younger age groups remains small — just 38 coronavirus deaths out of every 1,000 in July were attributed to younger people, but that is up from 22 per 1,000 in May."
Full article link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/u...gtype=Homepage
I want to address these b/c there are definitely competing theories and some of the sites that talk about this (excess deaths are very misleading).
Death data in the US comes from the CDC's National Vital Statistics Systems (NVSS)
Let's look at some NVSS data from the CDC:
Here is the link and I will screen grab as well - CDC NVSS Death Data Visualization/Chart Link
Now, if you look at the data, the total number of deaths as of Aug 11th, 2020 is projected to be: 1,636,992
That is supposedly 108% (not really that much of a difference in total 8% increase) of the expected death toll by this date.
However, we have 7708 deaths on average per day in the US and today makes 224 days which puts the "expected" death total at: 224*7708=1,726,592 (this gives a negative mortality in actuality)
Another thing to consider is that even IF there were any small % of excess deaths in relation to expected total mortality figures it could very likely be explained by a few things:
1. People with chronic conditions were not likely to go to the hospital when needed b/c they we scared (or they waited too late)
2. Elderly people with very serious potentially fatal conditions were also scared to get help soon enough
3. Many people who had conditions which should have been looked at seriously (cancer, heart disease, severe hypertension, COPD, etc...) put off treatment or they were not given priority as COVID was/is causing such a panic in the hospitals and among medical facilities
4. Medical facilities were overworked and overrun as a result of scared people trying to get testing or find out about loved ones with COVID and so on which further put pressure on people with serious conditions who got overlooked or were given less priority.
Those are just a few of the reasons even if we did see a small net excess of deaths in the 5-10% range (or even more - considering the vast size and population of the US - easily).
In addition, look at the screen grab or link:
--Deaths involving pneumonia with or without COVID are higher than the COVID alone 154K vs 146K. Also, the first column just means COVID existed (read the footnotes [1] in the image - it doesn't mean another condition wasn't also present, or couldn't be present).
--Deaths involving pneumonia AND COVID together are at ~64K.
--Deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID total out at over 242K!
It's pretty easy to see how comorbid or concomitant conditions could be swapped for COVID. Obviously tons of people, TONS, died with and without COVID that either had pneumonia or influenza! As many as 242K+! And to make matters worse let's not forget that those are only 2 major upper respiratory infections that could easily be confused with COVID. You still have people that could die of heart disease or cancer or renal failure or COPD or bacterial gut/lung infections, etc... also while having COVID and they always get diagnosed as a COVID death!
That's just ridiculous when you look at the data. There is absolutely no way they no with bonafide data or beyond a shadow of doubt what those individuals *actually* died of (meaning the true causative agent). Making it EVEN worse is the fact that the CDC put out a memo in April/May (iirc) that was recommending docs/practitioners to simply use their best judgement if a PCA test wasn't available or wasn't timely enough.
Reply With Quote
ugh hyperbolic media), those who couldn't get appts due to delays with docs or med staff, maybe even those who DID get triaged, yes, indeed, but then were not given as much focus or attention (not on purpose but b/c people are being frantic - even among med staff). 
Didn't see that link until now. Yep, there you go milo. 
You actually offered one of the only relevant replies on this entire 6th page. 
