Quote Originally Posted by TornAsunder View Post
A few other thoughts. Most people are terrible judges of personal risk. Using the car death analogy is nortiously deceptive, as lifetime risk of car death is almost 1 percent, and yearly risk is around 1 in 9000. Car deaths are more common in young adults. Most people are much more comfortable riding in a car than being in a commercial aircraft, which is statistically much safer.
The argument that Covid 19 is not the cause of deaths is also deceptive. The same argument is made about HIV, which doesn't actually kill anyone, but the destruction of the immune system it causes certainly will.
The long and short is the excess deaths we are seeing, greater than the average reported flu deaths, is certainly due to something new, Covid19.
There is not confirmed evidence at this time that infection will lead to future immunity, so the rush to get everone sick now to get the pandemic over with is probably not sound advice.
I admit, by nature i am a cautious person.
You have made a well reasoned argument, and i hope in time you are proven correct, but at this point i would recommed continued caution.
TA, thanks for this reply. You obviously read my essay. I enjoy that you've been unbiased and open-minded!

I plan to address users who asked for insights and I'd like to touch on a couple of things you mentioned. I still don't have time at this moment to properly do it but hopefully later tonight/tomorrow. Even if we are extremely emphatic about our hypotheses and research we have to keep an open mind. Any scientist who doesn't is a quack.

Now, yes, I do happen to emphatically believe I'm correct, and I agree with most other skeptical scientists, however, I fully concede that I/we could be wrong. That being said, when I return to offer additional insights, I want talk about a couple of your points. Specifically, the car accident analogy, immunity, and the final comment about recommending continued caution (not that that is a bad idea at all - I believe my essay points that out but caveats it with an age cap).

Yep, I too would say don't go walking into someones coughing fit space without a mask; regardless of age, however, I'd say that of the flu or any pathogen. The last part of your comment brings me to an issue that is very psychology based & is likely at play in society, most particularly, and ironically, as a result of the modern google/social media/info era.

Thanks very much for your compliment at the end. I too agree with Camela that you've made a solid post!
I will come back to touch on the elements I mentioned as well as the insights others have asked about.


Note: It's too bad we don't have an area more heavily trafficked to discuss this b/c it's of critical importance that this data, discussion, hypotheses, even if "seen" as dissenting scientists (many the most respected in the world), that this gets out there. If any of you know anything about the discussion around "cancel culture" in America right now, that's very much like what is happening among the opposing scientific (and psychological - mass social panic) theories which attempt debunking the current socially accepted prima-facie "Fauci/Birx" view of the pandemic. Unfortunately that's also largely driven by political agendas rather than science :/ It's a total mess. :/

The more this gets out, even on a "hobby board", the better. People will share it. It will have its own viral nature. We need that now more than ever. So share it with anyone you know, everywhere you know. Feel free to copy it word for word or modify it (so long as you make known any modifications please & properly cite them).