COVID-19 ESSAY - PART 2 of 2


WHY? WHY IS THIS CONTINUING IF ALL OF THIS IS TRUE?

Well, there are some very good reasons and that is a very good question. I've had a theory about this and it appears others have too. Here is an article more or less explaining exactly what I've been espousing about "social viral phenoms" beginning with the advent of quick access to data circa 1995 and getting worse as time goes on, the mass social media movement, and large panic frenzy behavior.

This is written by a psychiatrist in, "The American Institute for Economic Research - When Will The Madness End?".

Image excerpts from that article (read the article - it's very good):




We really are creating an living in a sort of "mass panic situation" perpetuated and caused simply by all the people themselves. You don't realize you are even a part of the thing quite possibly. It's not like it's a "conspiracy". No, no. Not at all. It's just what happens when millions upon millions get freaked out by science, or doctors, with uncertain information, and given the nature of social media and information exchange today at light speed paces. It's similar to when there is a huge stock market sell-off. If everyone just stood still and didn't panic sell nothing would happen and many companies would recover (as many indeed do, many of them recover and go on to become the worlds leading organizations). However, you can't control the "herd" impulse among that many hundreds of millions of people globally. So you end up with a runaway train of selling and devaluation. It's a very similar situation and if you read that article you will see that doctor talking about something resembling the same thing.


BAD SCIENCE, RUSHED SCIENCE

There is something known as the Uncertainty Excuse Principal in Science. You will see this scientist talk about it here: Uncertainty Excuse for Bad Science Article & Video Discussion. Basically what is happening is we are seeing science rushed all over the place to try to fix this crazy panic over a relatively mild virus. In the frenzy, which is perpetuated by media, we have some very bad science being done.

This is something Dr. John Ioannidis, the Stanford professor chair, and the man who wrote the seminal paper, "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False", in 2005 discusses frequently. That paper is considered one of the most extraordinary developments in science. And not just medical science, it's about how the data in all scientific studies can be quite flawed. It is lauded as a major reason for lifting the standards of research over the past nearly 2 decades in all disciplines and various scientific fields.

Science studies going VIRAL (case for bad science, rushed science, bad data): When science goes viral: The research response during three months of the COVID-19 outbreak.
This link is not really about the infection itself, it's a link to study data about the astronomical growth in preprint server studies (something I mentioned earlier in this essay).


SKEPTICISMS FROM SCIENTISTS & PUBLICATIONS

I will finish this section with some links to articles, screenshots, and a few viewpoints from skeptical scientists and I will then finish up with a conclusion below that in a new large bold face section heading.

Up to 300 Million People May Be Infected by Covid-19, Stanford Guru John Ioannidis Says

Images below are from the Lockdown Skeptics website. This is an AWESOME website if you want to read all kinds of articles, data, links to studies, news stories, all over the world, debunking some of the mass panic that is going around:

Page 9 of Lockdown Skeptics Website:



Page 2 of Lockdown Skeptics Website:


Lockdown Lunacy Facts Data Link

CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases

LOCKDOWN LUNACY 3.0—It’s over.
Some very good info at this link. You should also read the section which talks about IFR and the part that shows how warped the public perception is in some simple survey studies vs reality (i.e. where people think were: for example, 250 TIMES as many people has died vs CDC confirmed data). Crazy.

Great image cap from the link above (look at auto accidents like I said - age stratified risk group 0-44!):
up to about age 50 you are LITERALLY more likely to die from auto accident and about 3 times more likely in general to do die of "some other accidental injury"!




This data below is a tad outdated b/c the CDC estimates have been downgrades even further, but this shows just how ridiculous the media coverage about the "horrible danger" is lately.
THE CDC SLASHED THE COVID-19 FATALITY RATE TO A FRACTION OF EARLIER ESTIMATE USED TO JUSTIFY LOCKDOWNS

The COVID-19 Panic Shows Us Why Science Needs Skeptics
AUDIO VERSION - The COVID-19 Panic Shows Us Why Science Needs Skeptics

Deep analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic: A complex interaction of scientific, political, economic and psychological facts and fakes

Politics Influences the Science of COVID-19 by Dr Josh Mitteldorf

Did the Lockdowns Save Thousands of Lives? A Soho Forum Debate (a 1.5hr long video debated by Dr. Marty Makary supporting lockdowns and Dr. Knut Wittkowski who debunked lockdowns)

John Ioannidis and Medical Tribalism in the Era of Covid-19 - The critical questions the Stanford professor is raising about Covid-19 have gotten lost amid partisan bickering.
Again, this is what I've been talking about with the political polarization such that anyone with a critical viewpoint is seen as dissenting from the group (unfortunately at this point that means mostly the liberal group which wants to blacken the Republicans eyes with the elections nearing). The trouble is that politics and science should not be aligned with each. I don't have party affiliation, not technically, though I tend to lean for voting for Democrats, and I do not like Trump at all. However, that doesn't mean it's okay to try to align a proper scientific viewpoint, skepticism, concerns, or valid questions, with political ideologies or agendas.



CONCLUSIONS AND CLOSING REMARKS

The virus is real. No proper scientist denies any such thing. No proper scientist believes some sort of "hoax" is going on, whether political, or otherwise. Unfortunately what IS happening is that the media, our modern technology, social media influence, the novelty of a new pathogen, and the constant mention of death (notice how it's no longer as much death and just about "cases" - which is obvious too!), have lead to a "perfect storm" of events that have caused a worldwide panic and frenzy.

There are also many political aspects in play as I've said already. One scientific viewpoint is seen as aligning with Republicans (or, worse, Trump). The other is seen as aligning with liberals, or Democrats. That is really, really awful situation b/c they two are entirely separate and this is a prime example of exactly why Dr. Ioannidis wrote his seminal paper on bad science practices in 2005.

Do people die? Yes, unfortunately. Do we REALLY know yet what they actually die of, what caused it, etc...? No, we really don't. Are some, or even many, of them caused by SARS-COV-2 developing into COVID-19 and then causing lung or renal failure as a result of a cytokine storm caused by the immune system? Yes, almost undoubtedly. The actual number is still very much in question. Many people are likely just dying b/c they were going to die anyway (remember, the avg age is >80 with ~3 comorbid infections). Meaning that virtually any type of infection or pathogen could take them over the edge and cause systemic failure. However, yes, I do concede that much more than simply an "insignificant" number of people have died directly from getting it (much as they would if they had gotten a variety of H1N1 flu).

So, yes, people do die. Most of them who likely die as a CAUSE, not just HAVING it, but CAUSED by it (causation vs association), are probably: very elderly (>75-80), have multiple existing conditions, or they're young with comorbidities, or they're young and simply unlucky, maybe it's a genetic predisposition we are not yet aware of, for example. The bottom line is the VAST majority of people, VAST, VAST, VAST, are either asymptomatic, never get it, have mild to moderate symptoms, and they get over it. Some people will get very sick but this is small percentage. Even among elderly it's not some sort of death sentence. Not at all. Most of them will also get over it. There are many people documented well over 100 years of age in decent health (considering their age) who have recovered. I've seen cases of people 105, 108, 110, 112, even 116 years old who are completely fine now.

The big problem here is everyone being so scared of some killer germ. It's not any more killer germ than the common cold or flu. In fact we are very likely going to find out (as much of the study data proves already and as times goes on) that it's considerably less fatal than the flu. For people under 50 years of age it if virtually inconsequential to even discuss as a form of deadly infection. Again, it happens, yes. You hear the story about the guy or girl in excellent shape who was 27, yadda yadda, the guy in S.A who went to party, got sick and "died of COVID".

First of all, yes, that happens with ANY disease. On that same day there was also a track star somewhere who dropped dead running laps (even their doc just gave them a perfect bill of health). On that same day many people in perfect health died of flu infections. On that same day many young people died of cancer or a freak heat stroke or a freak brain hemorrhage and so on. We just don't hear about those b/c they focus on telling us about this thing. And it scares people. The reality though is the totality of people dead under 50 years of age is so low that it is insignificant when compared to other disease (or even auto accidents like I mentioned a few times). Even the totality of people dead over age 70 is not all that alarming considering their age, the comorbid conditions, AND the fact that we still don't know EXACTLY what it is that ultimately kills them. We don't. There is no test for that and we don't know. Read the links above the web seminar of leading virologists who believe "no one has actually died OF COVID". I don't know if I would go quite that far, it's certainly a factor, but it's an interesting viewpoint nonetheless.

What should we be doing? I think it's wise to wash your hands all the time. Wearing a mask helps but to be honest it's only delaying what must happen in the end in order to reach herd immunity. We likely already have herd immunity in certain global locales based on serology tests for antibodies. If it makes you comfortable wear one. I wear it because it's required. Now, yes, I'm not going to walk up to a person coughing and sneezing without a mask. Then again, I wouldn't do that in flu season or in a docs office with sick kids or parents either.

Bottom line?

If you are under 50 and you are healthy there is damn near ZERO chance you will ever experience anything as a result of SARS-COV-2 OR COVID-19. If you are over 60, particularly if you are over 65-75, I would certainly say you might want to exercise caution in populated areas, breathing too close to people or in crowded areas, touching extremely dirty fomite areas, and so on. The reason elderly people succumb, though again we don't really know if it's "COVID" doing this, but what happens is the lungs experience a cytokine storm. This happens when the alveoli lining the lungs which allow us to get breathable oxygen into our red hemoglobin cells which transport the oxygen for cellular respiration, metabolic activities, get clogged up. They send a signal to the immune system to produce cytokines which will help fight the infection and are part of the B cell/killer T cell immune response. When the cytokine swarms the alveoli sites they get all clogged up with pus, they swell, etc... Guess what happens if 75% of the alveoli in your lungs are clogged up with pus, cytokines, swollen, B/C cells from the immune response to inoculate the virus, etc...? Right. You can't get oxygen into your hemoglobin cells. This is why you hear about stories where people are breathing quickly and fast, gasping. It's because they get oxygen as their alveoli are compromised badly. It's not fluid or stuff like that in the lungs. Not at all. However, the issue is we still don't really know exactly what, how, or if COVID is the causative reason for many of the various symptoms. The science is still very flaky on that aspect.

VERY FINAL THOUGHTS

Your risk of dying, or even getting sick, if you are under 50ish or so, and healthy is so astronomically low it's not even worth mentioning. You have fucking nothing to worry about. Seriously. It's just fucking silly at this point.
Your risk of dying if you are >60-65ish, due to respiratory issues, is STILL very, very, EXCEEDINGLY low. Just look at some of the data in links and things I posted above if it worries you. What you have to realized is that even when you look at charts that might make >60 start to look like, "woah, it really begins to go up bigtime, and gets really bad at 70+, 75+, etc...". The issue there is, again, we also talking about lots of nursing home deaths, people in bad health, genetic predispositions, etc...

Like I said earlier, we are finding that nearly 40% of all deaths that we THINK are caused by COVID are happening in nursing homes with an avg age of 80yrs AND (that's important - not totally healthy), no, AND ~3 comorbid conditions that could complicate matters. So keep that in mind. Your chance of death with SARS-COV-2, or even if it turns into COVID-19 (those are two different things), is still VERY VERY low.

The IFR rate for ALL ages per the Stanford data above, the other studies, and our own revised CDC data, is now at .26%. For ALL ages. That means including everyone from infancy to >100yrs old the total risk is just 1.5-2 times that of the flu. That's the total overall risk. So even if you are 65, keep that in mind when you look at the charts and data above.



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