Quote Originally Posted by pumpernickel View Post

These st & lt debt cycles are just things they come up with to rationalize their investment behavior. They categorize it after a strategy to give it significance. The truth is debt cycles will more or less adjusted to current interest rates, the tenure, and geopolitical risks. This cycle bullshit is like me coming up with a theory on why I spend for sex. Truth is I have more free time(can't predict when), horny, and disposable income. Can't figure out exactly when all three happen at once but there some math and logic to it. Call it a buffet and fasting cycle for me.
This is probably true. When doing research, I come across lots of old articles and videos that predict one thing or another, and of course, years later, those predictions did not happen. Dalio himself says he lost everything in the 80s when he made a huge prediction about the economy that did not come true. Hopefully he learned from that, as he is doing much better now. It won't stop me from trying to keep reading though, I like to learn as much as I can and see where folks have gone wrong as well as where folks have been right. History is fascinating and I have been reading about the changes that have affected the economy over time.