Quote Originally Posted by pumpernickel View Post
If someone knew for sure, they'd be quite the person. I was looking at the phases in the video. I had to watch it a couple of times and I think we are in the deleveraging phase.

Truth is, we just have to watch for a few things:

1) covid rebound cases I am worried that many are acting like Covid is actually over after opening without waiting to see what the effects will be on the rise of cases.
2) covid rebound cases reaction, in the event they spike. Do we shutdown again? How bad will it be if we have to shutdown again?
3) covid rebound cases reaction, in the event we don't spike, do more things open?
4) OPEC

It's fragile. Signs are pointing to a market up turn. The best advice I can give you is take some cash that you could literally set on fire, and not worry about it.

Then dollar cost average some basic ETFs and stocks every week or every two weeks, or every month. See how that goes. I wish I had done dollar cost averaging when the market crashed in March. I decided to just play on paper, and if I had gone ahead with my stock picks I would have done well.

Anyone that can tell you things are a definite is dead wrong. My entire profession is bullish the economy, and today was my largest single day earning this year. But even I'll tell you, managing the risk of that is extremely sensitive and I will not jump on the bandwagon yet.

I got extremely lucky with some of my stuff. Nothing more than that. But the market upturn on short term optimism is more just outright optimism. Not short term. It's a curve. People having a life today is sooner than expected from covid experts, that impacts June 8 yes but also July 8 differently and down to December 8. That means Billy Bob who thought he's going back in August 1, but now June 22. Has 6 weeks of earnings more; that changes energy demand, retail demand, etc. All curve.

My personal opinion--everything is overheated. shit will scale down here soon. And mellow it. The forward optimism is too rich. I believe the optimism is way to early. What is going to happen when everyone spends all their stimulus checks? Covid has not gone away, social distancing is still in effect, business have gone bankrupt and unemployment is still at crazy levels. This can't be good for the long term.
I saw an article today that we actually officially hit the recession in February before Covid even hit, so if that is the case, there can't be a "V" shaped recovery if we were already headed to a recession anyway. I am wondering if that is why Buffet hasn't been buying, because he invests for the long run and this optimism is a short lived spike.