Economy: Where are we now?

[pumpernickel]

If someone knew for sure, they'd be quite the person.

Truth is, we just have to watch for a few things:

1) covid rebound cases
2) covid rebound cases reaction, in the event they spike. Do we shutdown again?
3) covid rebound cases reaction, in the event we don't spike, do more things open?
4) OPEC

It's fragile. Signs are pointing to a market up turn. The best advice I can give you is take some cash that you could literally set on fire, and not worry about it.

Then dollar cost average some basic ETFs and stocks every week or every two weeks, or every month. See how that goes.

Anyone that can tell you things are a definite is dead wrong. My entire profession is bullish the economy, and today was my largest single day earning this year. But even I'll tell you, managing the risk of that is extremely sensitive and I will not jump on the bandwagon yet.

I got extremely lucky with some of my stuff. Nothing more than that. But the market upturn on short term optimism is more just outright optimism. Not short term. It's a curve. People having a life today is sooner than expected from covid experts, that impacts June 8 yes but also July 8 differently and down to December 8. That means Billy Bob who thought he's going back in August 1, but now June 22. Has 6 weeks of earnings more; that changes energy demand, retail demand, etc. All curve.

My personal opinion--everything is overheated. shit will scale down here soon. And mellow it. The forward optimism is too rich.