do you think covid is real and a threat

[slocum]

One thing that does seem to be binary is our political system, and I think the Dems have overblown the dangers and the Reps have underplayed them. I think if our politicians were being truly honest, they would be saying "I don't know for sure" a lot more often.

Masks and social distancing seem like reasonable measures so I participate. I prefer going to the grocery store once a week rather than several times a week. I keep disinfecting wipes in my car and use them every time I get back in, if I have touched anything. I hardly ever eat out, but I didn't really eat out a lot before COVID. I do miss going to bars, but I didn't do that very much before anyway. I haven't even had a nose cold since March.

I really like working from home. I can check this site 20 times a day if I want to. LOL. Sometimes I do worry about global economic depression.

[Tang101]

I'm in the it's real but overblown camp but what blows my mind is seeing people driving or walking alone wearing a mask like there's some spider web of covid hanging in the air.

[Greented]

I really feel bad for the providers who have to carry on through all this. Has to be scary knowing that the next guy could be the magic bullet who puts you in the hospital for weeks, or worse. With shitty healthcare, too. Mouthwash and hand sanitizer are fine, but it won't protect you from some horny jerk who's ill and hobbying anyway. Seems like there have been several regular providers who have taken 2-3 week "breaks" lately. I hope they're okay.

[EagleEye]

My daughter is an RN at one of ATX's COVID hospitals, primarily in the surgical unit. She has to take shifts in the COVID unit periodically during spikes. She has seen about a dozen people die of the virus. The hardest thing for her is seeing them dying with just medical teams around them... no family present, just via facetime, zoom or skype. Not a good way to go.

[BoSox1918]

First of all: Hi Sue!

Second:
I have a friend who lost her brother.
I have another friend who lost her next door neighbor (first symptoms Thursday, gone by Sunday)
And my son's friend lost his father.

I wear a mask, social distance, and I'm fortunate enough to be able to work from home.

What I don't get about the anti-maskers is: why not be safe rather than sorry? If it had turned out to not really be a threat, then we all wore masks and social distanced for a few weeks for nothing. Big deal.

[dodger]

One thing that does seem to be binary is our political system, and I think the Dems have overblown the dangers and the Reps have underplayed them.

i agree.. i'm an old guy and remember when politics and government worked pretty well. far from perfect but good enough. for those old enough to remember lbj and everett mckinley dirksen (republican leader) ... without the dirksen led republicans there would be no civil rights act and voting rights act of the 1960s. lbj reference should have been a clue. these days, listening to practically anyone you would think these were democratic led issues. fact is, the dems of the solid south were very much opposed and it was the republicans who did the heavy lifting for a dem president ... because it was the right, moral, and ethical thing to do.

nowadays ... i have lost hope. americans are still pretty chill .... watch how neighbors and others help after a hurricane or check out the local food bank. but a pox on the politicians, generally. some day i would like to hear politicians discussing healthcare without using healthcarel and health insurance interchangeably. these are two separate but related fields.

last thing anyone should do is listen to politicians , ,, generally and specifically not when the topic is science or health.

sorry for the polictical rant ... probably should be striken. this is a ***** board ... plenty of other place to post these rants. DAMN YOU, SLOCUM!!!!

[lovingcamela]

I know personally, someone who died. A very good friend of mine, an Austin musician who I saw every single week for years, died of covid.

Sorry to hear about your friend Suenami.

I take the virus seriously. I’m lucky enough that in my circle of friends and family that no one has gotten or it if they have it was mild. That being said most of the people I am close to are very careful. Most of my friends, like me, live alone and work from home. From this perspective I don’t think the argument that not knowing anyone personally that has died from covid is a strong argument. For me that I don’t know anyone personally is a gift, it’s lucky, it’s fortunate...... not a reaction to say the virus is a not serious or possible a hoax in order to control the population.

[knottyman]

I don't see it as binary. Those who keep track of the mortality rates see it as binary. There isn't a category for " almost died".
I'm not making light of the virus. I truly hope no one gets it. I hear it can be awful.
But there's a HUUUUGE difference between being in a hospital bed in the ICU and being in an urn on top of a fireplace.
Again. Almost no one has actually met anyone who has died. But, everyone says they know someone who knows someone who died.
Which only goes to strengthen my statement. Almost nobody knows anyone who had died from this

[slocum]

Almost nobody knows anyone who had died from this

We could do some math. So far, the WHO says 1.1 million people have died from COVID and there are approximately 7.8 billion people. That represents a death rate in the population of about 0.000141. According to Andrew Gelman, professor of statistics at Columbia University, people know an average of 600 people. Take one random person. What is the probability that they know at least one person who has died? The people that a person knows are not independent, but for the sake of the calculation, we can assume that they are. You can use a binomial probability calculator to see that the probability that one random person will know someone who has died is about 0.08.

OK, now, suppose that 1000 people read this thread. What is the probability that a decent number of them (however you define "not almost nobody") know someone who has died? Assuming the 1000 people who read this thread are random (also not true, but probably close enough), then this is also a binomial probability with p = 0.08. Would 10% of people knowing someone who has died count as not almost nobody? The probability that at least 100 people of 1000 would know someone who has died is only about 1.3%.

So we can still have more than 1.1 M deaths and still the chance that a bunch of people you know would actually know someone who has died is miniscule.

Now, suppose that 2.2 M people worldwide are dead from COVID. Now the chance is almost 100% that 100 or more out of 1000 people will know someone who has died of it. And THAT is scary!

[slocum]

DAMN YOU, SLOCUM!!!!

LOL.

[knottyman]

For 1. You're assuming what the WHO says is true and accurate. We all know there is misinformation on both sides of this fence.
2. You're stating probabilities.
I'm asking for real numbers from people actually reading this thread.
No Where near a professional result.
Just asking for actual numbers .
How many do YOU know who have died from this?

[slocum]

2. You're stating probabilities.
I'm asking for real numbers from people actually reading this thread.

OK, I get it. Not everyone understands math and that's cool.

Let me put it more simply: almost nobody knows anyone who has won the Megamillions jackpot. Therefore, what exactly? Megamillions is overblown? Doesn't exist?

[knottyman]

OK, I get it. Not everyone understands math and that's cool.

Let me put it more simply: almost nobody knows anyone who has won the Megamillions jackpot. Therefore, what exactly? Megamillions is overblown? Doesn't exist?

No one is telling me im in danger of becoming a millionaire because they know someone who knew someone who won

[ProSlacker]

Nationally, the median charge amount – the amount for people without insurance or who went out-of-network – for COVID-19 inpatient care was $45,683 for people aged 51 to 60 and $34,662 for those in the 23 to 30 age bracket, according to a new study.

Even if you do have insurance, if you end up in a hospital with this, it's likely to wreck your hobby budget for a long time.

Some Covid-19 patients have experienced permanent hearing loss. Losing your hearing later in life would make things very difficult.

[VikkiLyn]

For 1. You're assuming what the WHO says is true and accurate. We all know there is misinformation on both sides of this fence.
2. You're stating probabilities.
I'm asking for real numbers from people actually reading this thread.
No Where near a professional result.
Just asking for actual numbers .
How many do YOU know who have died from this?

I personally know of 3 people who have died...My aunt,my daughters best friend of many years and a former co worker