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Thread: COVID-19: Analysis, Statistics, Dangers, Outlook, Conclusions

  1. #91
    Verified Hobbyist BCD mathguy's Avatar
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    ^ Very true Phaedrus. I agree with you about the futility part and unless you're "willing to play that game". I totally agree. What gets me is the completely idiotic arguments at times. It's like arguing with mentally disabled people half the time. And from that point I do completely feel like I'm wasting my time. However like you said I also know there are many who read it and just don't reply, it appreciate the expression of ideas, many of those people, possibly yourself, are my true target audience.

    Thanks for your reply as well. I do completely agree with what you said btw. Really. Part of why I do it on this topic is that I feel it's vitally important express these ideas, on this issue, everywhere, as much as possible, for reasons I've mentioned already.
    -MG

  2. #92
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    Given the topic not a bad thread so thanks. I am terrible at math...I'm 51 so the infected death rate for my group I believe is 0.14 percent correct? Can you put that into a 1 in X chance for me? Like I said I am really bad at math.

  3. #93
    Verified Hobbyist BCD mathguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baron1 View Post
    Given the topic not a bad thread so thanks. I am terrible at math...I'm 51 so the infected death rate for my group I believe is 0.14 percent correct? Can you put that into a 1 in X chance for me? Like I said I am really bad at math.
    Hi Baron, I just saw this a minute ago. I hadn't been tracking updates on this post.

    Well, you might be bad at math but you are most certainly NOT bad at reading. You obviously read my essay Yes, correct, you'd fall into the .14% IFR group based on your age.

    As a ratio, .14%, which is .0014, or 14 ten thousandths, equals 14/10000 (14 deaths in 10,000 people).

    As a simple "1 in X" ratio it translates to: 1 in 714.28.

    Seasonal flu at this age group is very near the same risk level. It fluctuates depending on the year from about .075% to .15% or 1 in 1333 to 1 in 666.

    At this rate, assuming the current COVID IFR holds true and doesn't continue to go down as we find higher seroprevalence levels, and more infections, your death risk is right on par with a very bad flu year. I expect the COVID IFR will continue to drop as we have seen it do for months & months as more study data comes out. We generally say that the average for flu is about 1 in 1000 (.1%) as a reference point.
    -MG

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    Thanks Mathguy.

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