COVID-19: Analysis, Statistics, Dangers, Outlook, Conclusions

[mathguy]

[FONT=Arial Black]Quote Originally Posted by Kallie Bloomquist View Post
There was no link whatsoever to the potential efficacy of a covid-19 vaccine. The vaccine does not exist, so any discussion of the efficacy would be pure speculation. Your claim to have knowledge about the vaccine efficacy, if believed by a reader, might lend weight to your other posts. You do talk about an article, and that the biologists goal is to achieve an efficacy of at least 50%, but the goal does not mean that is the outcome,(and you acknowledge that in about 20 words, after writing several hundred words about the efficacy of the vaccine.)

Maybe you have posted an excessive amount of words, and that is causing confusion.

You might be right about that link. I think I found that one later b/c I can't find it either. You are right about that part I didn't include it (likely b/c vaccine efficacy was not a huge part of that original essay). At any rate I will find the one I'm referring to, it's not the one you presumed in your other quoting, but, yes, there's a reference to it - I'll grab it and add it after this. Efficacy of a vaccine was never the original point that came up later in all this follow-up shit.

As for the wording? YES. This is ALL too much follow up posting (too many words - especially for the majority of users). I didn't expect to veer off into this other crap so much. It wasn't even supposed to be such an open debate for a small minority of aging men (basically about 2-3 of you so far that are attacking it) who are frightened or media panicked (??) and feel as if "its their duty to inform the public" about this "atrocious injustice" (??) .

First of all, that's silly AF b/c I *AM* a scientist, I have also consulted with my postdoc colleagues, one or two of which are guys with 150+ IQ's and have multiple PhD's. I have followed & researched this with them for months. In addition this viewpoint is NOT EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO A DISSERVICE even IF you disagree. It is not some esoteric unknown and off-the-wall idea. Thousands of scientists are utterly baffled at this nonsense which keeps getting perpetuated. Some of the are the most recognized scientists in the world. Many of them have gone on record and said they are "utterly baffled at this mob mentality", "it's asinine", "the worst rubbish and garbage science they have seen in their lifetime or the 20/21st centuries". Yes you can find those quotes too if you follow the links but I can also go find them for you. Those are paraphrases but YES they have said those exact words in one form or another. Leading scientists in all manner of the biological sciences realm. I'm not going to make this EVEN longer again though with more links (you can find them in the original article and the links and the links they go to and so on).

I don't mind the debate either (just so we are clear - I don't understand you caustic and abrasive behavior which is beginning to shine through). I just wish you would use data and not veer off the main topics of the essay so much. That's all. I truly don't mind the disagreement. That's healthy debate. I'm not quite sure why you have begun to have such a vitriolic tone.

In fact this has become so muddied that I'm going to have to redo it and re-post it in another form so that people can read it without all this back and forth. I posted it here only b/c I also post the data elsewhere (same as my colleagues and my good buddy at the Planck Institute and just like Dr. Ioannidis, Mitteldorf, Katz, Alexov, Wittkowski, Homburg, Kuhbandner, and countless others have been doing. I had already compiled this for another project I was working on and decided to modify it appropriately for use here on the boards.

You can't very easily talk about a *ANY* serious scientific topic (biological or otherwise) without using a decent number of words (particularly if it veers off course as it has) and if you are citing studies (which can be 50+ or even 250+ pages in length).

[mathguy]

In your best case scenario, the death rate is .25%, or 2.5/1000, x 320million US citizens=750-800,000 US deaths if everyone is infected. I am going to go out on a limb and say that being concerned about Covid-19 is not absurd.

No, no, no. Your math isn't off. Your methodology is off however. I'm not trying to be a dick. Please just listen. I'll explain. It's simple.

You will not have 320mn people get infected in the US (it's actually 331Mn ppl btw). We know many many many children won't be infected (the large majority won't be infected - that's 81.63Mn people under age 20).

We also know that at herd immunity level which even with conservative numbers is 75%, with more liberal numbers is 60-65% the infection won't be spreading. You also will have many adults that are simply immune, don't catch it, etc.... In addition we are not assuming the IFR stays flat. I mention that in essay. As the true infection rate does go up (globally - I really wish you would stop focusing just on the US) then the IFR goes down even further.

The IFR for those under 70 years of age is already known to be a median of only .04%. And just look at the National Centers for Health Statistics 2020 data (it's even lower than Stanford, or any of the docs I listed, and even Dr. John Ioannidis!). It's .01%! .01% people. The flu is 10 TIMES that rate. Now, yes, if you are older like over 75 then, yes, the percentages go up. Still though, you have not factored in tons of variables here.

So, again, your math is fine. I mean, obviously, it's basic arithmetic. The problem is the methodology.

You are assuming worst case scenario the entirety of the population gets it. That is not even realistic even IF the virus is as dangerous you want to think it is. That will not even come close to happening. Not even in the most DIRE situation.

---You have to consider millions of children who won't get it. You have to consider that only 60-75% infection penetration is going to happen before herd immunity suppresses transmission.
---You have to consider than the IFR when it's age stratified across different groups is no longer just .24% OVERALL.
For those under 20, about 81.63Mn ppl, many who won't even get it anyway, the IFR is *virtually* nonexistent statistically speaking.
---You have to consider that for 20 to 45 year old's, even to 50 years old, look at the Nation Center for Health Statistics data (there's a screen grab + link right there on section 2 of the main essay 1st page), the rate is listed as not even .04% (it's .01%!!). You have not factored in many variables which reduced the number fantastically.

The number would be nowhere even remotely close to the 750-800K number you arrived at is my point. Any death is tragic. Indeed. But my entire point (since you asked that about the masks in another post, and why did I do the essay, aside from that fact that I've already mentioned I compiled the vast portion for another project) but the point is that we need to look at it from a perspective manner, objectively, and with a critical eye (especially to much of the rushed science which immediately went to doom and gloom).

That's it. I'm done. This is absurd now. If I can't help you to understand by now, and tbh, yes, this is TOO MUCH crap and has become muddied beyond ridiculousness now, then I won't be able to do it at all if you can't get it by now.

Those who enjoy the information and like to listen to a scientist (and MANY other scientists), those of you who may not otherwise run into this kind of analysis, ever, which I and others post on biomed sites, medical blogs/journals, Quora epidemology/virals, etc, and you like an extremely good and valid argument from an alternative scientific viewpoint, please enjoy.

I would caution anyone to not buy into this fear propaganda and absurdity being spouted by those puppets Fauci and that idiot Ferguson. You are welcome too. Those who have thanked me privately and publicly I mean. I AM DONE HERE. The only ones [actively] engaging (which has also caused major veering) are 2 or 3 fear mongers and I don't want to continue to precipitate that nonsense.

[drqwerty]

The virus is enhancing humans by repairing them

What do you think would happen to the medical fields if a virus was created to repair humans instead of kill them

Some humans will not be able to handle the repair because their immune system keeps attacking the virus before the virus can complete the repair

Now I am the last person who would be posting this because I prefer the virus to be killing most of the worthless piece of shit humans on the planet but I am pretty sure I have figured out warp drive so since you are scientist you should understand. You should be able to get RICH because that is what all hores humans are greedy little viruses.

Now for warp drive if you think you can understand but you might actually be a stupid human in sheep clothing

Your not warping space time your warping a metal that changes volume by using a pair of shockwaves

As the volume increases the vehicle will go faster because more fuel is able to be created in the chamber this will lead to more push against the vehicle for a longer duration of a constant speed


Now go change the world because I am getting fucking tired of continually having to save a bunch of worthless humans

In the darkest abyss a spark can be as powerful as the sun so let's light this mother fucker up...

[kind69]

^ No not Amen. You are also very disrespectful btw.

You came earlier & said the same thing. You are the one who's incorrect. How can anyone believe anything you say when you don't offer and data or hypotheses?

You are obviously like a cretin that watches the news and considers people like Fauci/Birx to be some sort of god & blindly follows what they say. Not only that but most of it doesn't even come from them it comes from journalists which make it hyperbolic.

The quote you are referencing above is incorrect. I can easily explain why but someone like you won't understand anyway.

You are sold on the "Fauci/Birx" (+ Dr. Ferguson - idiot scientist who caused this) vision of a horrible apocalyptic virus. Pappy is going to be fine.

Yes, I'm confident b/c I know what I'm talking about. The information, much like all other scientists of my opinion are doing, is being spread everywhere. Not just here. It needs to be to overcome the ridiculous panic and blind herd following that the information age has brought about (again, read the psychiatrists debate in the essay link regarding that one).

Do you actually consider CNN OR Fox News to be listening to experts?? Are you kidding me?
Do some of your own critical thinking.

Answer me this.... for one. How in the world does the US, the most medically capable, technologically advanced, wealthiest country on earth, *supposedly* have 25% of all deaths yet we don't even make up 4% of the world population? That doesn't raise some red flags for you as to what's going on?? Many other countries didn't even institute lockdowns or they were radically minimized. Without ANY of the other data, TONS of data, this single aspect should raise huge suspicion alone. Particularly due to the US vastly superior medical community, wealth, and technology. Yet somehow we *supposedly* have 25% of the world's COVID deaths with under 4% of the world population in THE most advanced nation this world has ever seen?! Either these other countries should have chaos in the streets, are simply ignoring it (which we don't see on TV), or WE are drastically over-counting due to the financial incentives AND/OR the incredible microscopic view we put on the virus. With no other data, and there is plenty, just that one piece, it's enough to postulate that something is wrong. I'm telling you, we are swapping death causation one for the other. Other countries don't have time money or resources for that BS. So they just go about life.

We are overcounting deaths by a fucking tremendous margin. Tremendous margin for every single undercount. The CDC has been recommending to docs and hospitals for fucking months now to "use their best guess" in the absence of a test. Countless tens of thousands are declared dead of COVID without even a PCA. The docs, hospitals, and insurers are guaranteed 4-10 times the money too for designating a death as COVID-19. Sheesh. Kidding me?

You didn't read the essay or the links. If you did you wouldn't be able to say what you are saying. I don't blame you for not reading it bc I realize you are incapable of understanding it. I know who you are too! Can you please stop with your BS. At least offer some data like others have.

Time will tell. And I guarantee you I will be right once again. I will be. Yes, I'm confident of that. I do concede it's within the realm of possibility that I'm wrong but I'm willing to openly say Im not wrong, and that I will be right again (just like I was BOTH times about the legal issues and the supposed blackout effects for escort sites). IF am wrong I'll eat crow. I won't be wrong though. Nope.

EDIT: And pls learn to read about vaccines. At best a COVID vaccine with have 50-60% efficacy, certainly out of the gate. That means up to half the people who get it won't even have immunity. Ugh. It's not a magic bullet injection. Vaccines are GREAT, they are. Wonderful science. But that is NOT our salvation here. Many "pappy's" won't get immunity even when it's available due to efficacy issues (oh and btw most pappy's won't die of COVID whether they acquire it or not).

We have the highest infection rate for 2 simple reasons:
1) much of the world's population lives in 2nd and 3rd world countries where testing is not widely occuring and/or reporting are simply not happening (which under estimates the global virus count and makes our number look higher), and
2) we're doing a much worse job of containing the virus vs most industrialized countries, thanks to bullshit analysis like the stuff you're spouting. So no, it's not because we're overcounting. It's because India and Southeast Asia and most of Africa and the Middle East and Russia and much of Latin America are undercounting, plus we're a bunch of retards led by a gameshow host.

[OldFart]

Kind69 - this is the 3rd time you’ve spouted your “opinion” without backing it up with data. Why should anyone heed your vast knowledge? Just curious!

[lovingcamela]

I want to share something. In this podcast called This Week in Virololgy on episode 640 they interview someone about rapid testing. (I love this podcast! New one today.)

If we had cheap rapid tests what a game changer that could be. They could have low specificity or sensitivity...not sure which...I’m not a scientist. You could take a test daily, imagine schools, or going to see a lady. Sure you may get some false negatives or positives, but probably not two days in a row. I’m hoping for this over a vaccine.

[slocum]

EXCESS DEATHS
Regarding excess deaths you mentioned my current postulation is that largely we are incorrectly identifying deaths as COVID-19 deaths.

My question was about excess deaths total, regardless of the cause. We know about how many people should die worldwide per month of the year. If the actual death rate is higher than expected, then the increase must be explained. I would think that if COVID-19 wasn't killing people, then the number of deaths should be fewer than expected due to a decrease in traffic and work-related fatalities brought on by lockdowns. But the reality is that considerably more than the expected number of deaths have occurred, and even more than we would expect just due to COVID, if articles like this one are to be believed.

[txpilot3]

Well stated Slocum!

[Kallie Bloomquist]

The article is from The Journal of the American Medical Association and JAMA thinks that Covid-19 deaths have been undercounted. Nice link, and I have cut and pasted a portion of the discussion:


"Discussion
Monitoring excess deaths has been used as a method for tracking influenza mortality for more than a century. Herein, we used a similar strategy to capture COVID-19 deaths that had not been attributed specifically to the pandemic coronavirus. Monitoring trends in broad mortality outcomes, like changes in all-cause and pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19 mortality, provides a window into the magnitude of the mortality burden missed in official tallies of COVID-19 deaths. Given the variability in testing intensity between states and over time, this type of monitoring provides key information on the severity of the pandemic and the degree to which viral testing might be missing deaths caused by COVID-19. These findings demonstrate that estimates of the death toll of COVID-19 based on excess all-cause mortality may be more reliable than those relying only on reported deaths, particularly in places that lack widespread testing."

[Kallie Bloomquist]

From ESPN.com

"On Sunday, ESPN first reported that Big Ten presidents, following a meeting on Saturday, were ready to cancel the fall sports season, and they wanted to gauge whether commissioners and university presidents and chancellors from the other Power 5 conferences -- the ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC -- will fall in line with them."

The Big Ten television contract is $440 million/year, yet the conference schools are considering delaying the season until the spring. So the universities seem to be leaning toward (possibly excess) caution in their sports programs.

[Kallie Bloomquist]

College students will be returning to campus in the next two weeks, and 4 weeks after that we might have a pretty good sample to see if the severity of the pandemic has been overstated. When Covid-19 broke out in the spring, the universities closed their campuses to students.

[drqwerty]

Prepare for war because war is coming...war is coming

[Kallie Bloomquist]

War

Bob Marley

Until the philosophy
Which hold one race superior and another
Inferior
Is finally
And permanently
Discredited
And abandoned
Everywhere is war
Me say war

That until there no longer
First class and second class citizens of any nation
Until the color of a man's skin
Is of no more significance than the color of his eyes
Me say war

That until the basic human rights
Are equally guaranteed to all
Without regard to race
Dis a war

[aFelationado]

Nope, not all. I specifically stated it's not a conspiracy. On numerous occasions I have stated that and not just this thread either.



Incorrect assumption. Read the data. There are 180,000 hits on medical preprints for SARS-COV-2 studies. Do you honestly think there aren't opposing theories? Some of the leading scientists in the world I have cited. You didn't read or check the resources which prove it. We live in a really fucked up time.

Which is also ridiculous regarding what you said about Trump as *I* put a ton of it squarely on his shoulders. Not all of it bc some of it is the result of social viral phenoms (again, do some reading - I provided the links in original essay).



Again, not really reading. Here or elsewhere. Purpose?? That's been pretty clear and the psych docs have done a good job of explaining it. It's not a conspiracy. It's just a movement that can't be reversed easily once in motion (much like a stock sell-off frenzy which if stopped in it's tracks would "fix" everything). It just is. There's no grand purpose. It's just what happens when millions and millions are involved.




Now I really know you're not reading. Anyone here will tell you that for the better part of 2yrs I've been here I have lambasted Trump up and down the field. I can't stand him. I typically don't like the Republican ideologies but I don't technically partisan identify.

Btw the rest of the WORLD isn't wrong. There are countless millions who believe the opposing scientific theory. It's not some conspiracy. Lol. Are you honestly telling me you are not at all aware of these other scientific viewpoints? The issue isn't a conspiracy or news agencies that all got together lol. It's just a political and socially motivated panic ideology exacerbated by early Imperial College reports by Dr Ferguson (who was already astronomically wrong) AND the fact that we have a dunce president who doesn't know how to calm people, to soothe, or pacify, and give confidence to the public; he has trouble making a coherent sentence with more than 5th grade vocabulary.

He does the absolute opposite of all these things in fact. Do I support him? Haha. I've virtually wished for ~3yrs that some looney would take him out or he would just......die :/. Sorry. He's bad. He is largely why this exists but NOT bc of social distancing or lockdowns or silly shit like that which wasn't done "fast enough" (though that's also probably true to a degree as well, it's just not the MAJOR factor). It's b/c of his inability to lead, galvanize the public, create confidence in our country, to unite, etc.... He has the entire opposite effect. It's horrible.



I honestly don't believe you take time to read anything. So many things you said are asinine. Like the last few comments. You are making those comments to me? Lol. You really don't read. And you certainly don't know a thing about me

Be scared if you want. Be cautious of you want. If you are old I can understand that too. I totally understand it if you're elderly and/or have concomitant conditions. I've even given caution to age stratified risk groups.

However, I still think you need look at it relatively and perspectively. The society as a whole in particular. Go back and read the psych data and research to understand more about that aspect. It's not a conspiracy. Sheesh.

KB, no offense to your post buddy. Yes, I will do something small and preety quick (promise - not long) about your last question earlier regarding the mixup you interpreted about the infection numbers and such. It's a very clear answer. What you really need to do is just for through the original essay and the data links, tables, videos, resources. Forget the rest for now. That would best best. Really. I understand your concern. You are post 60. I get it. I hear you.

Guys, this poster mainly, read the data.

It comes straight from the CDC, WHO, NiH, medrxiv, biorxiv....sheesh fellas.

I didn't make up the numbers. I provided all the data with references and links to the frigging government agencies as well as institutions this poster here mentions above along with world renowned scientists, image excerpts, links to articles, tabular data, videos, etc.... Sheesh man. Read. Ugh!!!

^ Yes that is sad what happened to your co-worker and their family. Very said indeed. However, it still didn't prove the Fauci/Birx party line assessment whatsoever. Not in the least bit. Even 100k, even 200k, deaths doesn't do that.

Confirmation bias? Seriously? Did either of you just Google that to find a nifty little psychological term to fit your own argument? Confirmation bias is EXACTLY the problem here with the science and the panic and public opinion. Do you two realize that what you did with both of those quotes is to PROVE and support my own point even further?

Look guys, you don't have to believe me (though I am a scientist & have both postdoc epidemiologist/geneticist colleagues & friends). But put that aside. you don't need to even care about that. I'm just asking you to read the data out there. Don't listen to some damn sycophantic quack publicity "docs" who are just trying to cover their own ass (and NOW have to continue in order to not ruin their careers for this horrible situation they caused).

I meant to discuss this earlier too: someone talked about how "pappy" dying (or some such) is morally unacceptable to promote this alternate scientific theory (and psychtheory - b/c it's really both) if the other one happens to be true (i.e. the absolutely absurd idiotic doom & gloom "Fauci", Ferguson precipitated, theory).

Ok, let's just say it was really super duper deadly to elderly, severely, and would kill 3-4MN people worldwide eventually (I think that's silly AF but for argument sake let's say it's true). Ok so IF that was true? Then what about this aspect here? By some estimates the anxiety toll, the significant increase in suicides (I believe last stat I saw was an ~14-16% increase post pandemic - iirc), due to foreclosures, lost businesses that have been built for 20yrs, divorces, increased medication usage for depression, starvations, homelessness, etc etc etc will affect over 10Mn people. And that's not even discussing the issue to children's health, both physical (no exercise - no school, PE) & mental, improper education (parents can't properly home school, social alienation (more depression, mental issues), and so on....

What of those issues? To save a very small percentage of extremely advanced in age (IF that were even the case - it's not but for argument sake lets keep saying it is). Don't go on about how young people die too guys. I posted the data, even from the CDC, those are all edge cases. I posted this stuff. If you don't read it you are just being stubborn AF. The total risk to those under 70 puts the flu at 2-3.7 times as deadly as this virus. The data is there. I linked it. GO READ IT. SHEESH MAN. Stop being so damn panicked and read please! Sheesh. I know you are scared. But look man, even if your precious Fauci/Birx party line were true (and I'd bet my own progeny it's not given data I've researched, followed, as well as been presented by my buddy & friends at Max Planck Institute) it STILL would be the MUCH lesser of two evils. Is it tragic for elderly people in their 80s and beyond? Absolutely. But you can't compare the damage. It's a no-brainer even IF that ridiculous apocalypse scenario were correct.

I am telling you now, mark my words, even if it takes 6mos or significantly longer for the data to get validated, those fuckers are covering their ass now b/c if (not if... WHEN) it comes out finally, meaning when all this study data I've linked is fully confirmed and is also too overwhelming in number to 'pretend' anymore, and the "dissenting" group of us scientists who are skeptical for numerous reasons, those political sycophantic "docs" are DONE. Careers over after what they caused this world over a [relatively] insignificant infection.

When I say 'pretend' an example, just one of many, is the constant discussion if lag times in the news, it's coming, it's coming, oh wait now some docs think this, oh wait now we decided it's this theory, the lag is gonna catch up, yadda yadda, it was delayed by blah blah.... I mean jesus dudes how many times do you have to listen to that nonsensical journalistic hyperbole and politico doc speak, and then when it never materializes you finally start to do some critical thinking for yourself? How many times?? Seriously. I ask my dad this crap all the time. He is every single bit as hard headed as some of you older dudes. Stop being so damn scared. Just read. I gave you the information. Read. I'm trying to help you. Sheesh. You act like I'm trying to hurt you. :/

That's why they have to beat that horse for all it's worth just like all the other smaller time docs have to do too (though admittedly they are at less career risk, but still, anyone wants to save themselves from egg on their face - human nature). That's another reason the "confirmation bias" comments are funny too. Do you really understand what confirmation bias is or did you just Google and read the summary from Wiki? As opposed to investigating it if you really wanted to use it in a valid sense? Because all you did there is prove my point further from two different angles.

I don't know why you few guys are so hard headed or why you are so disrespectful to me and/or hurt by this. If you would actually read the data and critically think for yourself, instead of relying on journalists, and instead of trying to decide whether or not I'm Stephen Hawking/Einstein or the equivalent in biosciences (btw lemme give you a hint - I'm damn close.... lol ) you would be doing yourself a world of good. I promise you.

Mark my words. Stay here long enough, on these boards, and the 2-4 of you guys will owe me an apology. Guaranteed. Okay not guaranteed. I concede I could be wrong. But I'm not (seriously).

Either way people I just want what is best for our society. And what's happening now is not it... very sadly

I won't owe you shit.
All you are doing is manipulating the data to downplay this, making an even dumber argument that "it's no worse than the flu" it sounds almost as if you are saying this isn't even as bad as the flu. It's asinine. And it is insulting to people like me who had a really difficult time with it who has also lost coworkers to it.

I was so sick in Feb from it after going to San Francisco on business that I thought I was going to die from it. I've had the flu, and I've had pneumonia before, and this was like the two of them force multiplied. I was in and out of urgent care and ER for nearly 2 weeks and still have not fully recovered and without a CT scan won't fully know the impact of the fibrosis in my lungs, but now I get dizzy when I stand up really quick and get winded going up a flight of stairs. So no, this isn't the fucking flu, it's a fucking SARS outbreak.

I lost coworkers to this... and have known a few people nearly die from it. One is still on a ventilator and will likely not make it.

After I got sick and mostly recovered, the lock-down had just started... and I stayed home for about 5 weeks before I even left the house. I ordered food delivered. Had the majority of people done this, this bullshit would have been over in May, 3 god damned months ago!!!

But assholes like you spread disinformation to make people think this is just some global conspiracy to hurt the election.
People like you, liars basically, are the ones to blame for this going on for so long.

Sure, not everyone will get it. And, most people that get it won't die, but I'm still not ready for my parents to die prematurely and the hospitals to fill up.

I'll take the advice over experts in infectious diseases like Dr. Michael Osterholm and Dr. Peter Hotez, who have dedicated their careers to not just the study of infectious diseases but to teach others about it over someone playing around with #'s who makes it sound like the flu is deadlier.

People who use #'s to argue a point and skew the facts make me sick.
I see it with gun-control arguments, just like I see it with climate change and this.

You all disgust me.... and your concern over people losing their jobs and homes only goes to show your confirmation bias.

[Kallie Bloomquist]

250,000 visiting motorcyclists are in Sturgis for the week, and most are not wearing mask, as it is their right. If Covid is a real pandemic you would see a spike in reported infections in the 6 states around SD, and in September you would see a spike in deaths, as most of these riders look to be older. If there are no increases in infection and death rates then Covid-19 is not that serious. Most of the riders are staying in a 600 acre campground, so it is 1 person for each 100 square feet, and there are also buildings on the property for restrooms. It least it is outdoors. The attitude of the attendees is that the pandemic is not real, and if i get it, i get it.