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Thread: COVID-19: Analysis, Statistics, Dangers, Outlook, Conclusions

  1. #31
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    Herd Immunity

    If the risk of death from Covid-19 for people less than 40 years of age is so low, maybe we should have all those under 40 (166 million)step forward so we can infect them, have them quarantined for 3 weeks, and then we would be close to herd immunity for the whole country. All of this would be at very low risk to the people being infected.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathguy View Post
    What's the deal with diabetes/diabetics - RISK LEVEL

    There are studies on the effects of diabetes, yes. Not exactly in the way you asked lol.

    Diabetes carries extra risk but the reasons need to be examined b/c it may not actually be the diabetes or COVID-19. I'll explain. It tends to be worse in type 1 diabetes vs type 2 diabetes. However, the general theme is once again, age. For example, regardless of the type of diabetes, there is a 700-1000x increase in serious complication or even fatality (in the worst cases) for someone aged 80 vs someone aged 40.

    So, again, age is a HUGE factor. It is the MAIN factor bar none. The general idea there is that late in life there are many compromised systems, concomitant infections, complications of respiratory functioning, COPD, etc...

    And, yet again, remember that we know ~35%-40% of all deaths occur in various nursing homes/outbreaks where the average age is 80-85 with ~3 comorbid conditions. This is important b/c we need to realize that's a large number. That means a HUGE number of deaths occur mainly in people who are already on "deaths door" (unfortunately). Not to be insensitive.

    There are also other reasons we hypothesize that diabetes has higher risks. In type 2 diabetes this is typically an adult onset condition caused by poor diet (high sugars) and increased BMI association.

    Here are a couple reasons why diabetes may result in more severe illness or, in the worst cases, even death:

    1. There are already major concerns over the restrictive ventilatory effect of adipose tissue, particularly abdominal fat (adipose tissue). It cause respiratory distress (i.e. we would see severe cases and/or death more commonly in high BMI or obese diabetic patients).

    2. ACE2 is highly expressed in epicardial adipose tissue. SARS-COV-2 has a strong affinity for ACE2 receptors (this is also why kidney disease, lung diseases, heart trouble, etc... are high risk factors). ACE2 is a receptor that the SARS-COV-2 virus uses to enter the cell membrane and infect the target cell. So any areas or places where ACE2 is found heavily are target areas for increased severity of infection (this is also obviously mediated by genetics and your own innate and adaptive immune functions - that's a case by case issue).

    Another reason diabetes is believed to be a problem, again it's not really the diabetes itself, it's an underlying issue which tends to be common in diabetes. This next one has to do with "inflammation". Diabetics are already at increased risk of inflammation and inflammatory conditions. That makes the possibility of a "cytokine storm" more likely as diabetes is characterized by chronic low-grade inflammation.

    What makes this particularly bad is that SARS-COV-2 doesn't *only* infect alveolar epithelial cells of the lungs and upper respiratory system. It also infects some/certain circulating immune system cells which effectively induces apoptosis of the lymphocytes (death to white blood cells - immune fighting cells). As the T cells of the adaptive immune response inhibit innate immune response (phagocytic cells, neutrophils, natural killer cells...), the resulting lymphocytopenia (low white blood cell count) could suppress the innate immune system further and buildup the secretion of cytokines. The overproduction of cytokines is bad and can result in the "cytokine storm" I've talked about before. Cytokines are a pro-inflammatory cellular structure and obviously are not good for any susceptible to chronic low-grade inflammation in the body (i.e. diabetics).

    If you are borderline diabetic you could get a form of new-onset diabetes as COVID-19 has a tropism for B-cells (beta cells) which are made in the pancreas. Diabetics have reduced or non-functioning pancreatic cells for producing insulin. The B-cell impairment with the possibility of inflammatory cytokine conditions and counter regulatory hormonal response could precipitate acute metabolic complication (such as diabetic ketoacidosis or hyperglycaemic syndrome).

    In such cases you don't actually get severely ill or die of COVID-19 itself, rather, it's a result of what COVID-19 *can* do. However, let's remember this is all still very rare and doesn't happen a lot, but we do notice increases when certain concomitant conditions are present. What we don't yet know is if it's SARS-COV-2 --> COVID-19 that is actually causing it or if it's simply the fact that people with these particular conditions are more susceptible due to things COVID-19 ends up doing in the body which many other people can fight off.

    VACCINE

    Let me also mention vaccines again (since you mentioned it in your question). Vaccines are not always a magic medicine bullet. They are not at all. Vaccines come in different flavors. You have live attenuated viruses (weakened), dead viruses, recombinant/conjugate vaccines that contain subunits or parts of the virus. Finally there is one other called, toxoid vaccines.

    When you get a vaccine you are being injected with a virus. That's what a vaccine is. It's a virus, sometimes live, but weakened, low load, or it's only part of the virus, or it's dead, etc... and it basically "tricks" your immune system into producing protein antibodies so you will easily fight on the real virus if you come into contact with it. The issue is that a vaccine can make you sick. It can. Sometimes it can even be severe. Particularly if it's live viral vaccination. This is also why certain age groups get different kinds of vaccines (for protection). Children and older people too get boosters b/c they need a "boost" to keep the immunity as they got such a weak load, dead, subunit viral vaccination.

    A live viral vaccination creates the strongest response with the longest immunity from the immune system but it also has the highest risk of getting sick. The other issue to consider with vaccines is that they only have a certain efficacy level. As an example something like the measles vaccine will have >98% success (meaning only 2 in 100 wouldn't be inoculated by the vaccine when they got it - those 2 the viral vaccine didn't work in "tricking" their body to create enough immunity or the response wasn't strong enough). The season flu vaccine that many people get has an efficacy of about 60-70% (yes, folks, that means 30-40 people in 100 who get inoculated with the flu vaccine will not actually be immune - sorry to break it to you that way). It's likely that the SARS-COV-2 vaccine, particularly initially, will have at best 50-60% efficacy if we are lucky.

    I just really want people to understand that vaccines are not some kind of magic pill. They ARE the virus; only they are in a lesser form, broken up, weakened, or even killed, to try to make your body turn on the "antibody generator" (so to speak). It doesn't always work though (b/c it's not the exact same fully loaded live virus but it is the virus). And you are STILL at risk of having side-effects (though in fairness they are quite low - but you also have to mitigate that with the fact that something like the flu vaccine is only 65% effective on average).

    My Suggestion And Final Thoughts

    You mentioned you are over 65 and you have diabetes.

    Do I think you are at a "major risk"? Likely not.

    The OVERALL risk to everyone is just ~.25% (about twice the rate of season flu). This is the TOTAL risk for EVERYONE, so it includes everyone up to even >110yrs of age (there have been plenty of centenarians who recover - plenty). Yes, go down to age 45-50, or, say, 40, and the risks becomes astronomically low. Dr. John Ioannidis, Middleton, Wittkowski and many others (there were >100 co-authors working on the Stanford study) basically put the risk for age <45 (no major health problems) at virtually 0%. It's statistically about .002485%. Even for under 70 yrs of age the median across now 50+ serology studies puts it at .04% (i.e. the common flu is 2-4 times as deadly if you are under 70).

    NOW, that being said, do I think you should risk yourself right now? No, I do not. I would not advise it with the diabetic issue or if you have any major comorbid or concomitant conditions. Not until we know more.
    Thanks. I feel like I should send you a check after that lengthy analysis.

  3. #33
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    ^^ To KB above this one, that's actually not a bad idea tbh. Not at all.

    See the thing is many scientists already believe the absolute number of infected is way way way higher than our confirmed infections.

    In fact, the Stanford study (not the first one, the later one in July that compiled ~40 serology studies put the globally infected (or already infected/recovered) number at ~300Mn (possibly even "considerably higher" as we find out more through additional serum tests). That study involved around >105 scientists at Stanford including world renowned Dr. John Ioannidis whose work in epidemiological math & statistics methodology is unparalleled - he personally pioneered the way for proper scientific methods & data with his landmark seminal 2005 paper.

    It's easy to extrapolate these data points b/c of so many different global seroprevalence tests which test for immunoglobulin presence (antibodies). Using the various percentages we see in these studies, which do vary from locale to locale (indeed), we see a low of 5x true infected rate to as high as 700x (Japan was the study for that one).

    But the large point here being we see 5x, 10x, 12x, 15, 20x, 28x, 50x, 80x, and 100x+ and that's just a few there are now well over 50 of of those studies done in isolation by different teams with solid data.

    That is what is so utterly convincing about it this aspect. It's not the only aspect bit it's a major one. Another doc on Twitter (my apologies I forget his name now but I've linked him so you can find the image/excerpt,) said all the way back in April that he believed it was north of 30Mn already infected *just in the US*. See, that's the thing. There are fantastically more infected (or were infected/now recovered) than people realize.

    You mentioned 5x earlier as an upper bound. The thing is every single study done this far conclude that too 5x IFR is the extreme of the extreme lower end with an average multiple for IFR vs CFR of ~25x "true infected/recovered" vs the just the "confirmed cases". You see KB that's a large reason why I simply can't go along with some of the dire outlooks that mainstream media wants to paint. I believe it's also largely a form of mass panic & delusion which the psychiatrist discusses in the link inside my original essay data.

    Even it the true infected rate were not phenomenally higher as it now (i.e. on the order of >250-400Mn at this stage now) I would still have to question, regarding the US issue, WHY are those infections so prevalent here. I see your logic in the case of absolute infections. I do. The trouble is none of the data anywhere can explain the difference between the US and UK, or Russia, or Japan, or Sweden, or Germany, or France...... Not in terms of infections, b/c what we now know is that total true infection is PHENOMENALLY higher than just 20Mn global cases.

    The reason this alternative and very strong scientific skeptic debate is not getting out is bc of the same stuff I mentioned about the phenomenon of "cancel culture" (anyone who doesn't read up on that - it's about not being able to speak the truth bc of what the masses think & it will get you lambasted in our modern tech info era of social media).

    Basically the movement to boot right wingers from Congress (not just Trump), which I want to believe me, badly, I do, but that movement is soooo strong in the liberal media that it has been used to try to guarantee a Democratic Senate and Democratic president at election time. It's so polarized that not even world renowned scientists can get traction. It's going to take lots more dats. The original doomsayer's also have to save face as long as possible. Can you imagine what a black eye this would be to many so called "experts" (Fauci and Birx yes but MANY others too). It could ruin their careers due to what it caused . So there is a natural incentive and survival mode there tonight the evidence and stuck with the original apocalypse view Dr Ferguson had. It's a bunch of really crappy problems that have gotten us here, the least of which is an actual bonafide very deadly virus.

    At any rate I appreciate your calm demeanor, KB, your data, your debating style, courtesy, and analysis provided. It's refreshing to debate with someone in that manner and to give rise to new questions or reasons to look at the data again. Thank you
    -MG

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    I would still have to question, regarding the US issue, WHY are those infections so prevalent here. I see your logic in the case of absolute infections. I do. The trouble is none of the data anywhere can explain the difference between the US and UK, or Russia, or Japan, or Sweden, or Germany, or France....

    My point is that I am not looking to explain the high rate of infection in the US. My concern is that it exists. There is available, county by county, infection rates in the US for all 3141 counties, on a state by state basis, so we can reasonably accept the infection numbers are not made up. Proposing that there is no reason for US infections to be so high does not make them go away, they are real. If the total infections are real, then the total deaths are real.

    You seem to be arguing that reported infection rates in the US are too high, and at the same time, you argue that US infections rates are 5-10X what is reported (I think, I might be confused by the sheer volume of spaghetti you have thrown against the wall.) Maybe you could help me out and explain where i have misinterpreted you numbers.

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    courtesy

    MG- Thank you for your courtesy. I am not trying to fan any flames. I had to suspend my driving for Lyft on 06/13/20 as the infection rate in my locale grew too high, and so it surprises me when people complain the pandemic is blown out of proportion. My friends pleaded with me to quit driving, as I am over 60.

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    Cool

    "Answer me this.... for one. How in the world does the US, the most medically capable, technologically advanced, wealthiest country on earth, *supposedly* have 25% of all deaths yet we don't even make up 4% of the world population? That doesn't raise some red flags for you as to what's going on?? Many other countries didn't even institute lockdowns or they were radically minimized. Without ANY of the other data, TONS of data, this single aspect should raise huge suspicion alone. Particularly due to the US vastly superior medical community, wealth, and technology. Yet somehow we *supposedly* have 25% of the world's COVID deaths with under 4% of the world population in THE most advanced nation this world has ever seen?!"

    And that's where your own biases come into play. You're ASSUMING we're the most technologically advanced and medically capable country, but are we really? You see, these other countries that did well, even though covid entered them at the same time (like S. Korea) their infection numbers are incredibly low, because they did the right thing from the start. Everyone wore masks, conducted contact tracing, they all get paid sick leave, so they don't have to worry about their jobs or come in sick, because they had a centralized healthcare system so everyone was on the same page, and they had competent and intelligent leadership that made sure everyone knew what that page was.

    You see, "Mathguy" (scoff) you're trying to get me believe in something very irrational. You're trying to get me to believe that there is a global conspiracy, that's made up of nearly every major news agency, as well as every scientist and medical expert at large, as well as their agencies, thinktanks, grants, laboratories, academies, institutions, and universities that they work for, all conspiring to make covid-19 look worse than it is, but ONLY for America, and for what purpose? I'm sorry, but Occam's Razor does not bare that out.

    I;m gonna call it. I think I know what's going on here. You are a Trump supporter. You know that his failure to deal with this crises makes him, and the republicans, look bad, and they're your team. So, in order to preserve your ego, you would rather believe that it has to be *the rest of the WORLD* that is wrong.

    The Earth is not flat.
    We landed on the moon.
    Global warming is real.
    Vaccines work.
    Covid-19 is as bad as it seems.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    You're trying to get me to believe that there is a global conspiracy, that's made up of nearly every major news agency
    Nope, not all. I specifically stated it's not a conspiracy. On numerous occasions I have stated that and not just this thread either.

    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    as well as every scientist and medical expert at large, as well as their agencies, thinktanks, grants, laboratories, academies, institutions, and universities
    Incorrect assumption. Read the data. There are 180,000 hits on medical preprints for SARS-COV-2 studies. Do you honestly think there aren't opposing theories? Some of the leading scientists in the world I have cited. You didn't read or check the resources which prove it. We live in a really fucked up time.

    Which is also ridiculous regarding what you said about Trump as *I* put a ton of it squarely on his shoulders. Not all of it bc some of it is the result of social viral phenoms (again, do some reading - I provided the links in original essay).

    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    for what purpose?
    Again, not really reading. Here or elsewhere. Purpose?? That's been pretty clear and the psych docs have done a good job of explaining it. It's not a conspiracy. It's just a movement that can't be reversed easily once in motion (much like a stock sell-off frenzy which if stopped in it's tracks would "fix" everything). It just is. There's no grand purpose. It's just what happens when millions and millions are involved.


    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    You are a Trump supporter. You know that his failure to deal with this crises makes him, and the republicans, look bad, and they're your team. So, in order to preserve your ego, you would rather believe that it has to be *the rest of the WORLD* that is wrong.
    Now I really know you're not reading. Anyone here will tell you that for the better part of 2yrs I've been here I have lambasted Trump up and down the field. I can't stand him. I typically don't like the Republican ideologies but I don't technically partisan identify.

    Btw the rest of the WORLD isn't wrong. There are countless millions who believe the opposing scientific theory. It's not some conspiracy. Lol. Are you honestly telling me you are not at all aware of these other scientific viewpoints? The issue isn't a conspiracy or news agencies that all got together lol. It's just a political and socially motivated panic ideology exacerbated by early Imperial College reports by Dr Ferguson (who was already astronomically wrong) AND the fact that we have a dunce president who doesn't know how to calm people, to soothe, or pacify, and give confidence to the public; he has trouble making a coherent sentence with more than 5th grade vocabulary.

    He does the absolute opposite of all these things in fact. Do I support him? Haha. I've virtually wished for ~3yrs that some looney would take him out or he would just......die :/. Sorry. He's bad. He is largely why this exists but NOT bc of social distancing or lockdowns or silly shit like that which wasn't done "fast enough" (though that's also probably true to a degree as well, it's just not the MAJOR factor). It's b/c of his inability to lead, galvanize the public, create confidence in our country, to unite, etc.... He has the entire opposite effect. It's horrible.

    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    The Earth is not flat. -MG correct (derr!)
    We landed on the moon. -MG correct
    Global warming is real. -MG correct
    Vaccines work. -MG correct
    Covid-19 is as bad as it seems. -MG incorrect (with caveats for some age stratified conditions)
    I honestly don't believe you take time to read anything. So many things you said are asinine. Like the last few comments. You are making those comments to me? Lol. You really don't read. And you certainly don't know a thing about me

    Be scared if you want. Be cautious of you want. If you are old I can understand that too. I totally understand it if you're elderly and/or have concomitant conditions. I've even given caution to age stratified risk groups.

    However, I still think you need look at it relatively and perspectively. The society as a whole in particular. Go back and read the psych data and research to understand more about that aspect. It's not a conspiracy. Sheesh.

    KB, no offense to your post buddy. Yes, I will do something small and preety quick (promise - not long) about your last question earlier regarding the mixup you interpreted about the infection numbers and such. It's a very clear answer. What you really need to do is just for through the original essay and the data links, tables, videos, resources. Forget the rest for now. That would best best. Really. I understand your concern. You are post 60. I get it. I hear you.

    Guys, this poster mainly, read the data.

    It comes straight from the CDC, WHO, NiH, medrxiv, biorxiv....sheesh fellas.

    I didn't make up the numbers. I provided all the data with references and links to the frigging government agencies as well as institutions this poster here mentions above along with world renowned scientists, image excerpts, links to articles, tabular data, videos, etc.... Sheesh man. Read. Ugh!!!

    Last edited by mathguy; 08-08-2020 at 01:27 AM.
    -MG

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    My brain hurts just looking at this!

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    Cool

    Preprints don't mean shit. There were a bunch of preprints on how cigarettes are healthy, lead in our gasoline isn;t poisonous, CFC's aren't depleting the Ozone, Global Warming isn't happening, Creationism is just as viable as evolution, and so forth. Using preprints to defend your position is like using Harry Potter books as evidence that magic is real. Preprints are not "competing theories". They are, 99%/+ of them, quack documents that are gonna get weeded out after the peer review process. And after that, they still have to go through a crucible of independent observation and experimentation to verify the results, before they get the honor of being called a "theory". I trust the vetted information. Even if you allow for an EXTREME margin of error, covid is still more deadly than the flu or n1h1 by a large magnitude.

    I apologize for assuming you were a Trump supporter, if that is indeed not the case. I haven;t read your other posts. But you sure like to muddy the waters like one.

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    "It's just a political and socially motivated panic ideology exacerbated by early Imperial College reports by Dr Ferguson (who was already astronomically wrong)"
    "millions and millions are involved"

    So, this DOESN'T count as a conspiracy? LOL, I guess I'm just confused.

    There is more than one man than this... Dr. Ferguson, whoever he is, that aggregates the data. I'm pretty sure that's done by countless people in the field with PPE glued to their bodies 12 hours a day, witnessing the illness kill, or nearly kill, hundreds of thousands across the country.

    I don't believe that covid-19 seems as bad as it seems because people are responding to it psychologically like it's a... stock market shift? It's because the deaths have been witnessed.

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    For MG:

    It seems like you had made some comments that compared automobile fatalities to covid-19 fatalities. If you have 100million us drivers each workday, and 250 commuting days per year, then you have 25 billion driver days where a driver could experience a fatality. As an auto driver, you can have a wreck(infection) and not be immune to having a wreck the next day. With covid, you have a infection(wreck) and you are immune from further exposure. You cannot compare auto fatalities to covid fatalities, it is apples and oranges.

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    "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    This post is the epitome of a smoke and mirrors tactic, a total shell-game.. that isn't based on years of study in infectious diseases. It is merely the summation of a lot of confirmation bias fueled google searches.

    I feel sorry for anyone that reads this and believes that this is much less deadly than the flu and extra sorry for those of us who have suffered with it and lost coworkers, friends, and family members to it.

    Shame on you.
    Last edited by aFelationado; 08-08-2020 at 11:26 AM.

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    For MG:

    It seems like you also compared the likelihood from dying from a lightning strike, to the probability of dying from Covid-19. That is an invalid comparison since people will take shelter in a thunderstorm to lower their chance of being hit by lightning (and to stay dry!) if there was a huge thunderstorm, and everyone in ATX went out into the middle of a flat field, you would find that death by lightning spiked up. Also, if you are out in a thunderstorm, when you go home you do not spread that risk of being struck by lightning to your neighbor who took shelter, but in the case of Covid, that is what is happening. People were going out to bars in June, getting infected, and then spreading Covid to people who were staying at home.

    Until we get a vaccine in six months, the safe thing to do is social distance, wear a mask, sanitize your hands to lower the risk of infection for you and our neighbors. When Covid suddenly disappears because we have a vaccine, then we can have a post-mortem and figure out what worked and what did not work. For now, the prudent thing would be to use caution, and try and live a semblance of a safer but relatively normal life. MG, I think you have greatly understated the fatality of Covid-19, and by trying to convince others that it is relatively safe out there, you are doing a disservice. It is relatively easy and low cost to make some basic safety adjustments in our everyday life, and the cost of being wrong is very high.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kallie Bloomquist View Post
    You seem to be arguing that reported infection rates in the US are too high, and at the same time, you argue that US infections rates are 5-10X what is reported (I think, I might be confused by the sheer volume of spaghetti you have thrown against the wall.) Maybe you could help me out and explain where i have misinterpreted you numbers.
    KB, I said I would clear this up so I will.

    No, not the reported INFECTION RATE. In fact, that is WAY WAY WAY too low. As Ioannidis and tons of the other scientists I cited have said the infected number globally is likely upward of 300MN people already. Infected/Recovered (not FATALITIES). You don't just have to go off the Stanford study either, there are over 50-60 serology studies at this point to confirm the data from all manner of institution and global governments and various epicenters.

    The reported INFECTION FATALITY RATE is too high.

    See? I said it would be simple.

    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    Preprints don't mean shit. There were a bunch of preprints on how cigarettes are healthy, lead in our gasoline isn;t poisonous, CFC's aren't depleting the Ozone, Global Warming isn't happening, Creationism is just as viable as evolution, and so forth. Using preprints to defend your position is like using Harry Potter books as evidence that magic is real. Preprints are not "competing theories". They are, 99%/+ of them, quack documents that are gonna get weeded out after the peer review process. And after that, they still have to go through a crucible of independent observation and experimentation to verify the results, before they get the honor of being called a "theory". I trust the vetted information. Even if you allow for an EXTREME margin of error, covid is still more deadly than the flu or n1h1 by a large magnitude.

    I apologize for assuming you were a Trump supporter, if that is indeed not the case. I haven;t read your other posts. But you sure like to muddy the waters like one.
    Thank you for the apology about Trump. If you read any of my posts you will see that is indeed the case. Not only is a child, he is so infinitesimally mentally feeble, that I *literally* cannot even stand to listen to him speak (I mean literally - I have to change the channel most of the time or turn off the video if online).

    However, what bothers me most is I know you haven't read the data b/c I basically said already pointed out in the original essay that this is exactly the problem. The virus is new. I even pointed out that many peer-reviewed studies have to be retracted (I gave 1-2 examples iirc). I said the SAME THING with an ENTIRE SECTION ON THIS TOPIC.

    Yet..... to say pre-prints "dont mean shit" is ALSO a bit absurd b/c then WHERE is your so called "expert" data coming from if not these studies?

    Look, if you are not a scientist and you can't read the studies that's fine, or if you can't weed out the quack stuff (which I DO agree with you on about a large majority of shit out there - why do you think I mentioned the 180K studies - that's insane). That was the ENTIRE point of my section described BAD SCIENCE RUSHED SCIENCE (see you didn't read it at all). I addressed this matter in more or less the same way you did but I explain in more detail. And, regardless of anything, this is EXACTLY why EVERYONE (even non-scientists) need to try to take a critical eye to anything they read.

    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    "It's just a political and socially motivated panic ideology exacerbated by early Imperial College reports by Dr Ferguson (who was already astronomically wrong)"
    "millions and millions are involved"

    So, this DOESN'T count as a conspiracy? LOL, I guess I'm just confused.

    There is more than one man than this... Dr. Ferguson, whoever he is, that aggregates the data. I'm pretty sure that's done by countless people in the field with PPE glued to their bodies 12 hours a day, witnessing the illness kill, or nearly kill, hundreds of thousands across the country.
    Nope, it doesn't count as conspiracy. Not at all. I'm not the one that came up with that idea either (though I also postulated the idea myself). However, many psychiatrists have this view as well as psychologists and other people in the scientific field.

    Death happens every day. The US has ~10K people on any given day that day of all sorts of things. 3.5-4Mn+ per year die of all manner of things.

    My contention, along with all the other scientists I've cited, and the ones I haven't yet been able to cite, is that the deaths are simply being swapped for other diseases which kill people. You don't get freaked out everyday prior to this knowing that 600-700k per year die of heart disease or that 40-80k die of the flu, or that 500k-800k get hospitalized b/c of the flu, or that half a million die of cancer, or pneumonia, or renal failure, or hypertension, or diabetes, or or or...... did you? No. That's the point.

    The deaths are not occurring at any more "significant" rate than previously. THAT is the point. The thing KB is right about in his last (?) comment is that we won't know some of this until a true post mortem can be done. I totally agree with that statement. I disagree that it requires the vaccine, the reason we can't is b/c it takes ~18mos for our CDC to properly compile stats. See that's the other guys. Don't you realize that all these numbers are off as well? You don't really think the CDC actually counts the FLU do you? Or that they will even count every single case of COVID right now? They can't. Granted, there is a close eye on COVID.

    Still, read the science. If you don't believe pre-prints then where are your EXPERTS getting their data? There is little to none that is peer-reviewed and most of the ones that did come out have had to be retracted b/c THOSE *WERE* quack science.

    Quote Originally Posted by haveacold1atx View Post
    I don't believe that covid-19 seems as bad as it seems because people are responding to it psychologically like it's a... stock market shift? It's because the deaths have been witnessed.
    The stock market sell-off frenzy analogy was to show how a psychological event can drive something that has "real consequences". It was NOT to compare DEATH to STOCKS. You missed the point. It was to show how mass psychological events, particularly in our age of social media and viral info, can cause REAL & SUSTAINED IMPACT.



    Look guys, bottom line, it doesn't surprise me one bit that a few men here are against this. Why? This is a "hobby board". I would take a stab that the average age of our users here (especially active users) is likely 60+. So, naturally, you are scared, cautious, nervous. I get that. I totally get that. However, if you believe pre-prints are all shit, which is virtually all there is right now, very few peer-reviewed data are complete, and some of the major ones which went into the Lancet and such, have had to be retracted. I talked all about this in my BAD SCIENCE/RUSHED SCIENCE section. Sheesh

    What bothers me most is not that a few of you disagree. I don't mind debate or disagreement at all.

    The problem is it's so obvious some of you guys have not read any of it much less even a solid portion of it. Yet you comment on the essay? You don't call that hypocrisy?

    The best example of this is how "haveacold" mentions the pre-prints and that they were worthless. I talked at great length all about BAD SCIENCE/RUSHED SCIENCE. That is EXACTLY what Ioannidis and his entire team, Mitteldorf, Wittkowski, Hambur, Alexov and his team, etc.... etc... are ALL saying too. You didn't read any of that and that's extremely ridiculous to comment on my post when you haven't read it. Especially when I point out that VERY fact. And, further, the problem still remains that where does your "expert" data come from then? Fauci? Fox? CNN? Are you kidding me? Do some critical thinking of your own man. Those guys are tools. Especially the journalists who regurgitate it in hyperbolic fashion.

    Again, it doesn't really surprise that a section of men here are going to be fearful as most of you are elderly anyway. So I get that part. My dad is an elderly man (of course as I'm 40) and he constantly talks about this much the way you guys do. I have to constantly reassure him and show him the data. And daily he gets worried again. Not surprisingly after watching some total tool like Fauci or Birx or Trump or some other asshat clown who got their initial data from that idiot Ferguson OR the Imperial College OR the initial Washington study that projected millions upon millions that should already be dead. Ugh. Sheesh. Ferguson is a well known scientist, yes. However, he has been prone to error over and over. I have no idea why they allowed that fucking study to precipitate all this BS. He was wrong about H1N1 (bird flu). Also H1N1 (swine variety). Also Mad Cow. Wrong about this when he said 500K deaths in UK and 2-3Mn in US within months (that time has come and gone and the UK has less than .1% dead) and they didn't lockdown like we did, and the US doesn't have anywhere near 2-3Mn dead either.

    I understand that many of you men here are elderly and will naturally be worried. It's okay to be worried and to be cautious. However, MY point isn't even just about that part. It's also about the psychology of social viral events and BAD SCIENCE in the era of viral info phenoms (and I wish you guys would actually read that part - or go do your own critical thinking and research). The other thing that surprises me immensely is that if so many of our male hobbyist here average age >60-65+ why are you here now? If you are so scared then why are you on this board right now?

    I don't expect many of you to agree - especially the elderly male hobbyists here (which are the large majority). I'm just happy to share with those who do appreciate the information and who are being silent about it. I don't need the praise. I don't care about that. I care about sharing good, solid, information, and spreading information that is not panic inducing.
    -MG

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