If the risk of death from Covid-19 for people less than 40 years of age is so low, maybe we should have all those under 40 (166 million)step forward so we can infect them, have them quarantined for 3 weeks, and then we would be close to herd immunity for the whole country. All of this would be at very low risk to the people being infected.
^^ To KB above this one, that's actually not a bad idea tbh. Not at all.
See the thing is many scientists already believe the absolute number of infected is way way way higher than our confirmed infections.
In fact, the Stanford study (not the first one, the later one in July that compiled ~40 serology studies put the globally infected (or already infected/recovered) number at ~300Mn (possibly even "considerably higher" as we find out more through additional serum tests). That study involved around >105 scientists at Stanford including world renowned Dr. John Ioannidis whose work in epidemiological math & statistics methodology is unparalleled - he personally pioneered the way for proper scientific methods & data with his landmark seminal 2005 paper.
It's easy to extrapolate these data points b/c of so many different global seroprevalence tests which test for immunoglobulin presence (antibodies). Using the various percentages we see in these studies, which do vary from locale to locale (indeed), we see a low of 5x true infected rate to as high as 700x (Japan was the study for that one).
But the large point here being we see 5x, 10x, 12x, 15, 20x, 28x, 50x, 80x, and 100x+ and that's just a few there are now well over 50 of of those studies done in isolation by different teams with solid data.
That is what is so utterly convincing about it this aspect. It's not the only aspect bit it's a major one. Another doc on Twitter (my apologies I forget his name now but I've linked him so you can find the image/excerpt,) said all the way back in April that he believed it was north of 30Mn already infected *just in the US*. See, that's the thing. There are fantastically more infected (or were infected/now recovered) than people realize.
You mentioned 5x earlier as an upper bound. The thing is every single study done this far conclude that too 5x IFR is the extreme of the extreme lower end with an average multiple for IFR vs CFR of ~25x "true infected/recovered" vs the just the "confirmed cases". You see KB that's a large reason why I simply can't go along with some of the dire outlooks that mainstream media wants to paint. I believe it's also largely a form of mass panic & delusion which the psychiatrist discusses in the link inside my original essay data.
Even it the true infected rate were not phenomenally higher as it now (i.e. on the order of >250-400Mn at this stage now) I would still have to question, regarding the US issue, WHY are those infections so prevalent here. I see your logic in the case of absolute infections. I do. The trouble is none of the data anywhere can explain the difference between the US and UK, or Russia, or Japan, or Sweden, or Germany, or France...... Not in terms of infections, b/c what we now know is that total true infection is PHENOMENALLY higher than just 20Mn global cases.
The reason this alternative and very strong scientific skeptic debate is not getting out is bc of the same stuff I mentioned about the phenomenon of "cancel culture" (anyone who doesn't read up on that - it's about not being able to speak the truth bc of what the masses think & it will get you lambasted in our modern tech info era of social media).
Basically the movement to boot right wingers from Congress (not just Trump), which I want to believe me, badly, I do, but that movement is soooo strong in the liberal media that it has been used to try to guarantee a Democratic Senate and Democratic president at election time. It's so polarized that not even world renowned scientists can get traction. It's going to take lots more dats. The original doomsayer's also have to save face as long as possible. Can you imagine what a black eye this would be to many so called "experts" (Fauci and Birx yes but MANY others too). It could ruin their careers due to what it caused . So there is a natural incentive and survival mode there tonight the evidence and stuck with the original apocalypse view Dr Ferguson had. It's a bunch of really crappy problems that have gotten us here, the least of which is an actual bonafide very deadly virus.
At any rate I appreciate your calm demeanor, KB, your data, your debating style, courtesy, and analysis provided. It's refreshing to debate with someone in that manner and to give rise to new questions or reasons to look at the data again. Thank you
-MG
I would still have to question, regarding the US issue, WHY are those infections so prevalent here. I see your logic in the case of absolute infections. I do. The trouble is none of the data anywhere can explain the difference between the US and UK, or Russia, or Japan, or Sweden, or Germany, or France....
My point is that I am not looking to explain the high rate of infection in the US. My concern is that it exists. There is available, county by county, infection rates in the US for all 3141 counties, on a state by state basis, so we can reasonably accept the infection numbers are not made up. Proposing that there is no reason for US infections to be so high does not make them go away, they are real. If the total infections are real, then the total deaths are real.
You seem to be arguing that reported infection rates in the US are too high, and at the same time, you argue that US infections rates are 5-10X what is reported (I think, I might be confused by the sheer volume of spaghetti you have thrown against the wall.) Maybe you could help me out and explain where i have misinterpreted you numbers.
MG- Thank you for your courtesy. I am not trying to fan any flames. I had to suspend my driving for Lyft on 06/13/20 as the infection rate in my locale grew too high, and so it surprises me when people complain the pandemic is blown out of proportion. My friends pleaded with me to quit driving, as I am over 60.
"Answer me this.... for one. How in the world does the US, the most medically capable, technologically advanced, wealthiest country on earth, *supposedly* have 25% of all deaths yet we don't even make up 4% of the world population? That doesn't raise some red flags for you as to what's going on?? Many other countries didn't even institute lockdowns or they were radically minimized. Without ANY of the other data, TONS of data, this single aspect should raise huge suspicion alone. Particularly due to the US vastly superior medical community, wealth, and technology. Yet somehow we *supposedly* have 25% of the world's COVID deaths with under 4% of the world population in THE most advanced nation this world has ever seen?!"
And that's where your own biases come into play. You're ASSUMING we're the most technologically advanced and medically capable country, but are we really? You see, these other countries that did well, even though covid entered them at the same time (like S. Korea) their infection numbers are incredibly low, because they did the right thing from the start. Everyone wore masks, conducted contact tracing, they all get paid sick leave, so they don't have to worry about their jobs or come in sick, because they had a centralized healthcare system so everyone was on the same page, and they had competent and intelligent leadership that made sure everyone knew what that page was.
You see, "Mathguy" (scoff) you're trying to get me believe in something very irrational. You're trying to get me to believe that there is a global conspiracy, that's made up of nearly every major news agency, as well as every scientist and medical expert at large, as well as their agencies, thinktanks, grants, laboratories, academies, institutions, and universities that they work for, all conspiring to make covid-19 look worse than it is, but ONLY for America, and for what purpose? I'm sorry, but Occam's Razor does not bare that out.
I;m gonna call it. I think I know what's going on here. You are a Trump supporter. You know that his failure to deal with this crises makes him, and the republicans, look bad, and they're your team. So, in order to preserve your ego, you would rather believe that it has to be *the rest of the WORLD* that is wrong.
The Earth is not flat.
We landed on the moon.
Global warming is real.
Vaccines work.
Covid-19 is as bad as it seems.
Nope, not all. I specifically stated it's not a conspiracy. On numerous occasions I have stated that and not just this thread either.Originally Posted by haveacold1atx
Incorrect assumption. Read the data. There are 180,000 hits on medical preprints for SARS-COV-2 studies. Do you honestly think there aren't opposing theories? Some of the leading scientists in the world I have cited. You didn't read or check the resources which prove it. We live in a really fucked up time.
Which is also ridiculous regarding what you said about Trump as *I* put a ton of it squarely on his shoulders.Not all of it bc some of it is the result of social viral phenoms (again, do some reading - I provided the links in original essay).
Again, not really reading. Here or elsewhere. Purpose?? That's been pretty clear and the psych docs have done a good job of explaining it. It's not a conspiracy. It's just a movement that can't be reversed easily once in motion (much like a stock sell-off frenzy which if stopped in it's tracks would "fix" everything). It just is. There's no grand purpose. It's just what happens when millions and millions are involved.
Now I really know you're not reading. Anyone here will tell you that for the better part of 2yrs I've been here I have lambasted Trump up and down the field. I can't stand him. I typically don't like the Republican ideologies but I don't technically partisan identify.
Btw the rest of the WORLD isn't wrong. There are countless millions who believe the opposing scientific theory. It's not some conspiracy. Lol. Are you honestly telling me you are not at all aware of these other scientific viewpoints? The issue isn't a conspiracy or news agencies that all got together lol. It's just a political and socially motivated panic ideology exacerbated by early Imperial College reports by Dr Ferguson (who was already astronomically wrong) AND the fact that we have a dunce president who doesn't know how to calm people, to soothe, or pacify, and give confidence to the public; he has trouble making a coherent sentence with more than 5th grade vocabulary.
He does the absolute opposite of all these things in fact. Do I support him? Haha. I've virtually wished for ~3yrs that some looney would take him out or he would just......die :/. Sorry. He's bad. He is largely why this exists but NOT bc of social distancing or lockdowns or silly shit like that which wasn't done "fast enough" (though that's also probably true to a degree as well, it's just not the MAJOR factor). It's b/c of his inability to lead, galvanize the public, create confidence in our country, to unite, etc.... He has the entire opposite effect. It's horrible.
I honestly don't believe you take time to read anything. So many things you said are asinine. Like the last few comments. You are making those comments to me? Lol. You really don't read. And you certainly don't know a thing about me
Be scared if you want. Be cautious of you want. If you are old I can understand that too. I totally understand it if you're elderly and/or have concomitant conditions. I've even given caution to age stratified risk groups.
However, I still think you need look at it relatively and perspectively. The society as a whole in particular. Go back and read the psych data and research to understand more about that aspect. It's not a conspiracy. Sheesh.
KB, no offense to your post buddy. Yes, I will do something small and preety quick (promise - not long) about your last question earlier regarding the mixup you interpreted about the infection numbers and such. It's a very clear answer. What you really need to do is just for through the original essay and the data links, tables, videos, resources. Forget the rest for now. That would best best. Really. I understand your concern. You are post 60. I get it. I hear you.
Guys, this poster mainly, read the data.
It comes straight from the CDC, WHO, NiH, medrxiv, biorxiv....sheesh fellas.
I didn't make up the numbers. I provided all the data with references and links to the frigging government agencies as well as institutions this poster here mentions above along with world renowned scientists, image excerpts, links to articles, tabular data, videos, etc.... Sheesh man. Read. Ugh!!!
Last edited by mathguy; 08-08-2020 at 01:27 AM.
-MG
My brain hurts just looking at this!
Preprints don't mean shit. There were a bunch of preprints on how cigarettes are healthy, lead in our gasoline isn;t poisonous, CFC's aren't depleting the Ozone, Global Warming isn't happening, Creationism is just as viable as evolution, and so forth. Using preprints to defend your position is like using Harry Potter books as evidence that magic is real. Preprints are not "competing theories". They are, 99%/+ of them, quack documents that are gonna get weeded out after the peer review process. And after that, they still have to go through a crucible of independent observation and experimentation to verify the results, before they get the honor of being called a "theory". I trust the vetted information. Even if you allow for an EXTREME margin of error, covid is still more deadly than the flu or n1h1 by a large magnitude.
I apologize for assuming you were a Trump supporter, if that is indeed not the case. I haven;t read your other posts. But you sure like to muddy the waters like one.
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