PN was that a dig, or did you mean it like, "yea and this too", or maybe, "ok, here we go off to the races with some continued debating...". Not sure what you meant.Originally Posted by pumpernickel
PN was that a dig, or did you mean it like, "yea and this too", or maybe, "ok, here we go off to the races with some continued debating...". Not sure what you meant.
-MG
I thought he was merely unable to contain his joy when you joined thread.
Lol j/k :)
It seems the sudden optimism in the markets have died. Reality is setting in.
No no you don't have to be j/k Chloe ;)
One can always hope lol. In my mind that's what I was going with anyway
-MG
Ha. Good to have others chime in.
We'll see where we strike 2nd week ish of July, midish July. Texas is level 2, and 2nd phase of re opening on Monday. I'm curious.
And this constant bullish rallies are such easy sells. I really think people who have never invested in the stock market, came out of the wood works. The daily flip margins are huge, its a bipolar game.
I still stick to my angles though, very confident in it. Worst YTD I've had in my career, I think I'll end up positive though. I'm making baby margins messing the dailies on the rookies. That's giving me leverage to keep the var maxed to the gills.
I was still long term long airlines, sold out some of my AA cause of the stupidity in the rally. And shorted Tesla again. That stock you can literally trade short term and make significant money. Put more into the core, and kept some FCF against my shit p&l.
I think we will see a very regional profile to recovery. Texas new cases way up, but with more tests and about 2 weeks into re-opening that shouldn't be a surprise. Europe starting to re-open in earnest, but now China scrambling because of a few dozen new cases after almost 7 weeks without.
I don't think we will see a full shutdown even if things get really bad again...the economic hit just isn't palatable and elections right around the corner.
Interesting you are willing to keep your VAR high, that is a bit contraindicated when volatilty is so high. It IS about FCF now and probably into Q1...those with strong liquidity will do well, and those without will struggle or be forced to file.
I always keep my var maxed. Scared money don't make money.
I say FCF but more so in hype stocks I sell or short to get liquidity. I have a bunch of reciporacting positions.
And agreed on second "shutdown" strength, or lack thereof. It's not really that, that keeps me a net bear. It's duration. People knew opening would cause a spike, etc. That's natural.
I don't think the economy still grasps 2021 is still heavily impacted, too. A lot of the US set to travel in a Oct & Nov 2020 globally. I'm betting that doesn't happen. I'm betting it's not even possible till q3ish 2021. People won't be able to attend live sports for a year +, not just these next 3 months. It's q4-q1 that'll hit people hard and understanding the magnitude. That shit life may not be entirely normal for more than a year. That changes the scope of things. From real estate, travel, entertainment, etc. That's a new beginning.
I need the market to realize Christmas is painful. That's my bet. And if I'm wrong, then that means energy,oil, retail is up. And I got a position there.
The Disney experience for NBA and MLS will provide a lot about the trajectory for sports, and I agree concerts will follow. I wonder about real estate, as most of the job loss has been retail, etc and that tends to be rental base. Landlords will be hurting cuz of supply/demand imbalance but equity/housing is a longer outlook.
I kinda get you on the scared money point, but you can split the difference and buy the debt, which is yielding nicely now depending on sector. And you've got a stronger position if it goes into bankruptcy...
NBA apparently is already have some internal issues. We'll see. I think the world had to hit fast forward on a lot of things I I thought would happen in the near future.
1) A majority, and viable Work from Home designation.
2) Virtual Reality Entertainment (sports, concerts,etc). Where you pay for the POV on your headset at home. And stadium owners can really charge whatever. It's virtual seats, can have 100k at a game not just 20k for the NBA.
3) Virtual job reach--i don't need to hire a local lawyer or doctor, I can virtually hire one now. As good, in regards to representation...the virtual aspect will come.
4) Drones. Waiting for full on drone delivery, no humans. Can't pass sickness around with drones doing the work. Itd require FFA and USPS war
All this stuff leads to folks looking at suburb living, don't need to live near work now, possibly virtual education, etc.
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