Watch and learn about Covid 19

[GentleTouchbyLiz]

With all the Covid 19 posts here, I thought I would add something helpful.

I watched this excellent documentary on YouTube. Since we cannot share
the links, I will post the title and you can find it yourself. "WE HEARD THE
BELLS: The influenza of 1918" and I like the one on PizzaFlix channel the best.

Despite the title, it is a very modern explanation of viruses. It is very
interesting and extremely detailed. The scientists are heroes, if not for
them we would not know any of this information. Dr. Fauci is in it, but
he is not the expert in the story. Just watch it and you will be shocked
to see who is. I am in awe of these brilliant minds.

Give it your attention, you will be so glad you did.

[elk45]

Thanks Liz, good information here

[Georgecam]

Thanks Liz. I been told that the movie “ Contagion” is similar to what we are going through (less deadly).

[freakwincy]

Thanks Liz. I been told that the movie “ Contagion” is similar to what we are going through (less deadly).

Contagion is the closest from what we are currently dealing with.
In Contagion it was stated it had a R Naught of 2.

Covid 19 has a R Naught(Basic Reproduction) of 2.5 to clusters of 4 to 5.

Take the hobby into consideration and it’s scary.

So to those that aren’t afraid of it think about the up to 5 people you could infect.

Those two people give it to two to 5 people

Those 10 people spread it to 50

50 spreads to 250
250 spreads to 1000
1000 spreads to 5000
5000 spreads to 25000
25000 spreads to 100000
100000 becomes 500000
500000 becomes 2.5 Million

7 jumps could only be 7 clients some girl met with.
Superspreaders

F2FFA737-FBB0-492E-A65B-94D956FAB635.jpg

[mathguy]

I never mind posts around awareness b/c it's always a good thing to increase recognition of illnesses, but any comparisons to Spanish Flu (H1N1 variant to which most flu are related) are more than absurd.

The 1918 outbreak ultimately killed about 50Mn people globally by some estimates. At that time it gives it a crude mortality rate of 2.7% (50Mn into 1.85Bn people - approx global population of 1920). The huge issue here with comparing that 2.7% to the current US National case fatality rate (CFR) of ~2.5% is that they are totally different numbers.

That current 2.5% is created by doing this: 8000 (deaths) /309,000 (confirmed cases). If we wanted to use the rate often cited in popular media and news for Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 we would do this: 8000 (deaths) / 331,000,000 (population of US). Which means the US crude mortality rate is them: 8000/331Mn=.000024=.0024%

One is "crude mortality rate" which is always [total fatalities / population size = CMR].

The other is "case fatality rate" which is always [total fatalities / known confirmed cases = CFR]

That is another reason I find those comparisons in popular media and the news morally and ethically reprehensible (particularly so when it comes to the average person). It blows me away that they compare them like that. You have to realize that the Spanish Flu "case fatality rate" was phenomenally higher than 2.7% and is nowhere even remotely close to this current pandemic. Comparing a CMR (Spanish Flu) to a CFR (current SARS-COV-2 pandemic) is like comparing a hammer to a razer blade. It's complete and utter nonsense which incites more panic b/c of course people are going wow that crazy 1918 pandemic that killed up to 50Mn people has a kill rate of 2.7% and this one is sitting at 2.5% nationally? No no no no. They are not they same. The actually CFR of the 1918 pandemic was far higher than 2.7% CMR. Just like the CFR for COVID-19 in the US is currently ~2.5% which is 1,000 times higher than the US based CMR of .0024%.

The other thing to note is that the current CFR globally and in the US is still not a good indicator b/c we simply don't know how many more millions could have or already had it. That's why as times goes it gets better but you will still see it swing back and forth for a while, and you will still see different regions of the world with vastly different fatality rates. Even within the US you can see significantly varying fatality rates in different regions. It's because we don't know the true "infectious fatality rate" or IFR. The IFR is simply: [total deaths / all actual infections]. The trouble here is you will never know of all infections unless you tested literally every single person. Obviously we don't and usually can't do that. With time though the confidence level and the standard deviation will get tighter and tighter as we compile more data on any known pathogen. A good example is basic seasonal flu, we can't know *exactly* (probably not even within +/- 100,000) how many cases exist but as we compile data over the years and decades our confidence level gets better and better so the IFR will get closer and closer to its true value. As of now the IFR for COVID-19 is probably wildly off the mark.

A good example of that would be something like, "what if there were really 3Mn people infected OR that had active COVID-19 sickness?" (yes, there is a difference there too). If that were true and we could know it with better testing, faster testing, then our new CFR or IFR would be: 8000/3,000,000=.0026=.26%.

Also, current data suggests that the virus has existed among humans for years as I previously postulated. I came across a study in my evolutionary biology discussion elsewhere. You won't be able to read the study (it's $400 for people who don't have access but you can read the article summary. The study concluded it has existed for years and was done by multinational team of different experts: Study Experts Conclude SARS-COV-2 Existed in Humans for Years - Long Before Wuhan

In addition to this we also now know that comorbid conditions and pre-existing complications (especially in the elderly) cause even the current CFR in the US of ~2.5% to be much higher than without any pre-existing conditions or comorbidity: ~.9%



Additional data is suggesting that the true mortality (only this far - remember this target moves as our testing gets better) is in the .6% to .9% range absent complications or comorbidity.

One study reported under .6% for infectiously confirmed and IF it moves into COVID-19 illness (onset of actual sickness - again *if* it occurs) goes up to the .9% range. Another one concluded 1.23%. I'll update this entry when I can find my other research links.
EDIT: New coronavirus death rate estimates show how sharply the risk rises with age (source for above data - compiled from studay data Johns Hopkins & WHO/CDC - LA Times Article)

Image Source:
The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)

Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

[BigDallas]

just the flu ...that midget fauci is a cocksucker.....don't ever believe a midget with glasses.

[Georgecam]

just the flu ...that midget fauci is a cocksucker.....don't ever believe a midget with glasses.

To many of us, Dr Fauci is the expert with knowledge. I guessing you are smarter. I am giving you a chance to show us you are smarter than Dr Fauci or validate your claim.

[BigDallas]

To many of us, Dr Fauci is the expert with knowledge. I guessing you are smarter. I am giving you a chance to show us you are smarter than Dr Fauci or validate your claim.

He's feeding you bs, he's a paid actor...if you don't have common sense and don't see it then i don't know how to help you understand. The facts are all there just like 9/11.

[Lookingsweet]

The government spends billions on technology and weapons .hopefully after this they will consider doing something about that vacine that it really is worth spending money on.

[LickHer]

The government spends billions on technology and weapons .hopefully after this they will consider doing something about that vacine that it really is worth spending money on.

GEZZZ... The government in concert with the public sector are working 24/7 to develop a vaccine. You have to have an actual virus before you can work on a vaccine.

[JessieJane]

Paid actor lmao WoW !!

[Georgecam]

He's feeding you bs, he's a paid actor...if you don't have common sense and don't see it then i don't know how to help you understand. The facts are all there just like 9/11.

I got no common sense. I only has FACTS !

[BLM69]

People in here don't care about those numbers or videos, I see daily offerings of services, and guys tricking. Is this like the 30th thread of the corona virus? I didn't read the exact reason for this one, is this a it's ok to hobby or it's not ok?

It's like trying to post up std numbers on a hobby site, business continues as usual

[mathguy]

^ Probably a lot of truth in some things you mentioned. I don't disagree.

Though I do think it's a good idea to share educational and objective analysis based data on credible sources (or educate such that people can then validate it on their own), particularly in such crises. Similar to how I still think it helps to share valid educational info about STDs even on this site; but yes I do get your overall point. That said, the more we discuss the virus and get people to research it on their own, using credible sources, educating, disarming certain unnecessary panic, the better off we will be in the end.

Personally, I'm becoming extremely concerned about the phenomenon of social viruses. They are and already have begun to have real and concrete effects on everyday life. I don't think it will get better either. If anything it will get worse as more & more people have access to absorb OR disseminate information.

[Lookingsweet]

Well they still haven't found a vaccine for sars covid2 . they thought it was over. The next virus will be covid 6.9