The curve is huge, I'm getting a little scared. How are you holding up?

[mathguy]

The social distancing has only been to slow it down and give an amount of control to the public so they feel like they can do something. They needed something to slow it so the hospitals ect don't get overloaded to the point where we become another Italy, having to triage who lives and who dies and losing alot of health workers in the process. This last 2 weeks bought the govt time to play catch up and get logistics in place. Stimulus was to ensure a fresh injection of cash when they do lift it.

Now it is to the point though where you have to do something with the economy or it will end up worse than the virus. We have a flexible economy but it has its limits until it will break and if that happens you'd see the modern day version of the 1929 stock market crash but much worse due to the interconnection of various micro economies now. You'd see widespread bartering, breakdown of govt and social services, followed by anarchy in worst case scenarios.

Some great points AJ. I agree, beginning with your hypothesis about the govt buying time, getting logistics in place, ending with the fragility of the economy and that we are at a point where we have to do something (with a small caveat to that last part I'll explain in a sec).

Just to be clear to everyone here, I don't care about the political view of any of this stuff. I am not Republican nor am I a Democrat (I don't partisan identify). However, most would likely call me a liberal; and I do happen to absolutely loathe our president, in words that even I can't express! Lol

I don't want this to be political. I mention this now only b/c I realize after listening to some of his crap why people are seeing my posts an "uncaring" recently.

So, let me be as crystal clear as I possibly can be with respect to Trump, politics, etc... : I am NOT one single iota, not in the slightest bit, in agreement with whatever nonsense that man has spouted about economics, or how elderly may have to pay the price, or whatever other garbage and incoherent babble came out of that man's mouth. Ok? I just want that out there.

Ok, back to the economic aspect. I wouldn't say we are quite *yet* on the precipice of disaster economically, BUT I do think if we continue in this current manner where likely only half the economy is functioning, especially for more than 8wks (maybe 12 at the VERY most & that's pushing it soooo far), we could create such a dystopia that is so awful that the cure might not even be worth it. If you understand how economies work it doesn't take a genius to see what is going to happen if we don't fix it.

My great fear, regardless of whether this virus turns out to be 1/10th as deadly as the flu (this would happen once we can test millions more) OR it turns out it really is 5-10+ times as deadly, either way, we have to do something to get a large portion of the economy working again. We at least need it back to, say, 85+% capacity or we risk creating a catastrophic future that will make the Great Depression look like child's play. The hole could get so deep there just isn't any way out.

I also agree with Jefferson SF about the "party" rebounding everything. I totally agree. However, my fear now is it's taking too long and the fever pitch is getting out of control.

Realize that each 2wks or so that go by, each month that the govt had to infuse cash (which isn't nearly enough btw - we'd probably need another $1-$2Tr/mo @ least) the "party" (from pent up energy to get back to work, play, spend, etc) that needs to happen, which would spark significant economic rebound, becomes exponentially larger to fix the hole we are digging. :/

[Tx33_averageJoe]

Ok, back to the economic aspect. I wouldn't say we are quite *yet* on the precipice of disaster economically, BUT I do think if we continue in this current manner where likely only half the economy is functioning, especially for more than 8wks (maybe 12 at the VERY most & that's pushing it soooo far), we could create such a dystopia that is so awful that the cure might not even be worth it. If you understand how economies work it doesn't take a genius to see what is going to happen if we don't fix it.
:/

I agree we are not there yet, and I agree on the timeframe. However, unless you added a cushion into your estimates, as large and as complex as our economy is we need to do something soon so that there is time to fix it. What I mean is if we wait till say it is almost on the brink of collapse there will be to little time to right the ship so to speak. I estimate that even when the economy starts rolling again it will take perhaps 2-3 wks for the effects to actually start healing the damage. I tried to think of a good analogy to put it in simpler terms but alas I cannot. Lol. So if we wait until say the economy is a week away from collapse then it simply will be too little too late. Again not disagreeing with you just further analyzing.

[mathguy]

^ Yup. Very much agree AJ.

[Adonisman]

A $1200 stimulus check I think will grow to a bigger amount. No evictions filed before April 19th as time goes by I think it will push out more.

The amount of + test have spiked from people who were infected in the beginning of March. They are even saying Mardi Gras time. I'm just hoping in the coming weeks there are less and less as so many people stay home.

I'm so afraid for our economy right now, people layed off left and right. How can our government compete with this monster.

Even though stimulus checks are supposed to only be for the working people, I know it has and or will take a chunk away from providers. And I'm hopeful most providers do file taxes, as we are part of society as well. I myself am a bit concerned for my fellow providers. How are you holding up ladies?

Opinions please...

Sad thing is from what I can tell, very very few Providers file taxes, unless they have a RW job that is w-2. Not wanting the attention from the IRS.. I am self-employed. i am not getting anything. Frankly $1200 does not do shit for me.. I would rather it go to someone who actually needs it.

[Ben Rhimene]

What I mean is if we wait till say it is almost on the brink of collapse there will be to little time to right the ship so to speak. I estimate that even when the economy starts rolling again it will take perhaps 2-3 wks for the effects to actually start healing the damage. I tried to think of a good analogy to put it in simpler terms but alas I cannot. Lol.

I can offer a simple analogy most will understand.

1. You are driving down the highway and need to pass a car so you push the accelerator to the floor. It takes a while before the engine responds and you go faster, and longer still before you hit top speed.

I believe this is called slack time in the locomotive world. If you ever had Lionel or Thomas the Tank Engine sets around you'll have seen it. There is a delay between when the engine moves and the last car starts to move; due to the built in cushion aspects that connect one car to the next. The effect is multiplied when you have more cars hooked up.

Applied to our economy, the Order means less people out. Stores like Starbucks only have drive-thru service. Less customers so they staff less. Workers lose job or lose shifts, meaning they have to adjust their spending downward. When the Order expires a more normal setting returns...I can sit in Starbucks if I want, so staffing picks up. Maybe not to pre-virus levels, though, because those who lost their jobs or took a big hit still will be conserving cash. While Starbucks, restaurant workers get tips immediately the first paycheck takes a week or two. The recovery aspect of the cycle becomes more elongated as the downside grows. It just takes longer to climb out of a deeper hole.

That fear is growing for me. More than fear of the virus. But as Italia di Bella said elsewhere, that is probably human nature because I don't know anyone who has gotten sick, but I certainly see the economic chaos every day I go to work.

[chloevankatie]

I can offer a simple analogy most will understand.

1. You are driving down the highway and need to pass a car so you push the accelerator to the floor. It takes a while before the engine responds and you go faster, and longer still before you hit top speed.

I believe this is called slack time in the locomotive world. If you ever had Lionel or Thomas the Tank Engine sets around you'll have seen it. There is a delay between when the engine moves and the last car starts to move; due to the built in cushion aspects that connect one car to the next. The effect is multiplied when you have more cars hooked up.

Applied to our economy, the Order means less people out. Stores like Starbucks only have drive-thru service. Less customers so they staff less. Workers lose job or lose shifts, meaning they have to adjust their spending downward. When the Order expires a more normal setting returns...I can sit in Starbucks if I want, so staffing picks up. Maybe not to pre-virus levels, though, because those who lost their jobs or took a big hit still will be conserving cash. While Starbucks, restaurant workers get tips immediately the first paycheck takes a week or two. The recovery aspect of the cycle becomes more elongated as the downside grows. It just takes longer to climb out of a deeper hole.

That fear is growing for me. More than fear of the virus. But as Italia di Bella said elsewhere, that is probably human nature because I don't know anyone who has gotten sick, but I certainly see the economic chaos every day I go to work.

Super intelligent men are always such a turn on.

[Ben Rhimene]

That's great news for them, but how do you feel about grown men who play with train sets?

Or would that be getting off topic?

He he...I said getting off.

[chloevankatie]

That's great news for them, but how do you feel about grown men who play with train sets?

Or would that be getting off topic?

He he...I said getting off.

As along as they are planning on running those trains on me...

[Ben Rhimene]

As along as they are planning on running those trains on me...

I think I can, I think I can, I think I can...

[Ben Rhimene]

Back to the economic impact...

While picking up my lunch I listened to a local restaurant/food scene podcast. Man, was that ever gloomy!

Guest restauranteur shared that his business is running at 4.5% of normal. He has resorted to selling food stores as is so it stays fresh and cash flows-just sold 50 pound box of potatoes to some guy. He sounded nervous but determined. His expectation is that about 70% of local restaurants will shutter for good...they do not have resources to hold out. Which leaves national chains and some of the local multi-store operations (many of which are consolidating their operations into 1 or 2 stores to keep variable costs down). He was convinced the food scene will get wiped out if things do not change in 2-4 weeks. He also noted they had 24 hours to close seating areas but it will take longer to ramp back up. Many of staff are going to places that are hiring, such as HEB or Walmart. Expect delays as restaurants re-staff, train, etc.

Fun Fact: food delivery apps have cut out delivery charge to customer, but still charging restaurant 30% of ticket. While we are still allowed to go out to get food perhaps get pick up or restaurant delivery instead of DoorDash, etc. If you are comfortable go in person, tip, show the appreciation and save your faves.

Fun Fact 2: couple in front of me ordered their food and pointed at the benches outside and asked if they could eat there. They were informed that if the City caught them the restaurant gets fined $500,000.00. That was news to me...that is one way to ensure compliance.

Please remember, if things are this dire to places allowed to run minimal operations, imagine what it is doing to those that cannot open, like dry cleaners and other service industries.

[Vanessa]

Don't believe the hype. The fine isn't $500,000 - The fine is $1000. https://www.click2houston.com/news/l...al-distancing/

And if the bench isn't on their property, they can't be held accountable.

The CARES Act has some impressive benefits for small business owners. They need to go to their local banker and start the process now for SBA loans.

Another helpful hint about supporting restaurants is to order to-go liquor drinks - higher profit margin.

[Ben Rhimene]

Don't believe the hype. The fine isn't $500,000 - The fine is $1000. https://www.click2houston.com/news/l...al-distancing/

And if the bench isn't on their property, they can't be held accountable.

The CARES Act has some impressive benefits for small business owners. They need to go to their local banker and start the process now for SBA loans.

Another helpful hint about supporting restaurants is to order to-go liquor drinks - higher profit margin.

Thanks Vanessa. Agree the misinformation is a big part of the problem.

I was just relaying what I'd heard. Seemed too much to me as well, so I did some googling:

https://abc13.com/society/all-harris...-down/6018886/

THAT article suggests a $2000 fine. Either way, it's obvious the manager of the lunch joint made up a huge number so the millenials would move along.

I like your point about going to see a banker for solutions. The restauranteur on the podcast was asked about getting relief from his landlord, etc. His response was he didn't want any additional indebtedness. While I admired his pluck, part of me just shook my head at his financial ignorance, and unwillingness to at least explore options.

I am afraid that might be fairly typical in the smaller operations.

[Tx33_averageJoe]

According to the Whitehouse task force update this evening they will recommend keeping Federal guidelines for COVID-19 in place until April 30th. Up to the states to determine shelter orders ect but most were based on those recommendations.

[Vanessa]

Thanks Vanessa. Agree the misinformation is a big part of the problem.

I was just relaying what I'd heard. Seemed too much to me as well, so I did some googling:

https://abc13.com/society/all-harris...-down/6018886/

THAT article suggests a $2000 fine. Either way, it's obvious the manager of the lunch joint made up a huge number so the millenials would move along.

I like your point about going to see a banker for solutions. The restauranteur on the podcast was asked about getting relief from his landlord, etc. His response was he didn't want any additional indebtedness. While I admired his pluck, part of me just shook my head at his financial ignorance, and unwillingness to at least explore options.

I am afraid that might be fairly typical in the smaller operations.

The SBA loans are 100% forgivable if they comply with the necessary requirements regarding retaining employees, etc.

[Ben Rhimene]

According to the Whitehouse task force update this evening they will recommend keeping Federal guidelines for COVID-19 in place until April 30th. Up to the states to determine shelter orders ect but most were based on those recommendations.

Fed guideline I saw on one of the local news sites indicated elder and at risk shelter, everyone work remotely, and avoid crowded places like bars and restaurants. Without having taken time to find and actually read it to confirm language, seems like most local orders taking it a step or 2 further.

Having said that, I also saw that Dr. Fauci indicated the USA will certainly have 100,000 deaths and potentially 200,000.