The curve is huge, I'm getting a little scared. How are you holding up?

[Jefferson Starfish]

I'd rather pay big money at the pump and know my fellow Americans are thriving. The economy was starting to look so good.

As a provider (I can only speak for myself) when I work, right now there is not a huge difference in income. Maybe because the AMP's are closed? Strip clubs closed? Whatever the case, just like the spike in + cases what goes up must come down. And I for one am afraid for the next year. I'm also a realist, and very much an over thinker. I'm a little nervous.

These are the times when a gal really needs an Alpha male in her corner. Ijs.

Peace, Love, and #BHILF

JS

[Ben Rhimene]

It is about to get worse. US numbers skyrocketing. Harris County almost 400 now.

Rhode Island sending National Guard to quarantine those recently in New York (over 500 dead), and important voices calling for national coordination.

I am expecting an extended and expanded quarantine by mid-week. I hope I am badly mistaken.

Some graphs I posted elsewhere on aspects of the virus...worth the 30 seconds it takes to load...

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-c...155112382.html

[JuggHead]

I am expecting an extended and expanded quarantine by mid-week. I hope I am badly mistaken.

I'm stocked up on coconut oil & tissue, even dug my old porn dvds out of the closet incase the web goes down so I'm prepared.

[chloevankatie]

It is about to get worse. US numbers skyrocketing. Harris County almost 400 now.

Rhode Island sending National Guard to quarantine those recently in New York (over 500 dead), and important voices calling for national coordination.

I am expecting an extended and expanded quarantine by mid-week. I hope I am badly mistaken.

Some graphs I posted elsewhere on aspects of the virus...worth the 30 seconds it takes to load...

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-c...155112382.html

Attachment 516519

[chloevankatie]

In all seriousness, I really think we just aren't going to see things get that bad down here. I might be wrong, but I want to go with Mr. Starfish's assessment of the effect of heat on the virus. I do hope the summer is gonna kill it off. And Houston is just so spread out, we just haven't seen the exponential case growth that other areas have. And if we don't see any more significant exponential growth, I might jump back in the hobby pool, cause 500 sick people in a city of millions doesn't concern me.

But that's only IF we don't continue to see significant exponential growth.

Here is an article that predicts we will see the peak here in Texas in late April. If that is true, then we really dodged a bullet on this one. Our lives can begin to get back normal fairly soon.

https://kvia.com/health/2020/03/28/h...in-late-april/

[Mokoa]

Topic is not hobby related.

Moved to the proper forum.

[JuggHead]

In all seriousness, I really think we just aren't going to see things get that bad down here.

One can only hope. I for one have decided to take a break from hobbying. Not only is there the risk of infection but I have to criss cross through 2 surrounding counties before I get into Harris. Some of these small P.D's jump at the chance to write a ticket so it won't be just a simple traffic stop.

[Anna Nikkole]

In all seriousness, I really think we just aren't going to see things get that bad down here. I might be wrong, but I want to go with Mr. Starfish's assessment of the effect of heat on the virus. I do hope the summer is gonna kill it off. And Houston is just so spread out, we just haven't seen the exponential case growth that other areas have. And if we don't see any more significant exponential growth, I might jump back in the hobby pool, cause 500 sick people in a city of millions doesn't concern me.

But that's only IF we don't continue to see significant exponential growth.

Here is an article that predicts we will see the peak here in Texas in late April. If that is true, then we really dodged a bullet on this one. Our lives can begin to get back normal fairly soon.

https://kvia.com/health/2020/03/28/h...in-late-april/

We have taken a hit. I'm trying my best to be careful, limiting clients. It's been a big change in income. And you heard the old saying, "s**t rolls downhill".

I'm in prayer daily. I've just never been in such an emergency disaster that there really is nowhere to go because it's worldwide. In 60 years I hope to be alive to talk about "the time of the Coronavirus".

Katie I hope by late April things start to bounce back. Until then I'm limiting my hobbying to the least possible.

Young people are being effected. A caugh for weeks attacking the lungs and leaving permanent damage. It's so scary.

[Ben Rhimene]

And if we don't see any more significant exponential growth, I might jump back in the hobby pool, cause 500 sick people in a city of millions doesn't concern me.

But that's only IF we don't continue to see significant exponential growth.

Was surprised to see this thread moved but that's another matter.

CVK...I am with you...where the area sits now it seems a bit like overreaction. Having said that, temps have only recently started to rise so I would like it consistently 80F+ before we start counting on heat to slow it down. Looking at the map the Northeast and Midwest are pure red outside rural areas. Cold weather plus close quarters a bad combo with pandemics.

[Anna Nikkole]

Was surprised to see this thread moved but that's another matter.

It's ok. It started with me asking my hobby friends how they are holding up. Right now, the hobby isn't affected for those not taking precautions. Due to strip clubs and AMP's closed. But for us who are taking time off, limiting everything. And those of us who have absolutely retired like CVK, yes the hit is hard.

Escorts have to wait till the economy bounces back as I think we will see. It's my fear that we will feel it so greatly. I had such plans for 2020 now feeling selfish and my heart hurts for people in general. It's the oldest occupation in the world, it's just hard to see others suffer as the world we live in most households are 2 paychecks from being homeless

[mathguy]

I don't know why someone got so mad at me for saying similar things to what Starfish said and then Chloe even agreed with him.

Also, some of these stories people this is what I'm talking about. It's nonsense. It really is. Like "travelling morgues" in NYC, dumping bodies, etc....??? Even if you showed me a pic or video I'd have no choice but to call it fake.

Think about it people. NYC can't handle the death rate? Really? Kidding me folks? 700K a year die worldwide of flu, 50-65K in the US alone, and NYC, a metro agglomeration of 19-20Mn people can't handle say 700-1000?? It's speculation that numbers will get out of hand or people being hyperbolic about what IS happening bc they are scared it's an apocalypse event. Epidemiologists have clearly said it's not. The apocalypse is going to be caused by the social virus not the biological one. It could be that half those damn deaths if not more, even in younger people, are related to comorbid infection or related illness.

Seriously now?? The US cant handle 2k deaths over the last month or so when upwards of 8,000 people die EVERY single day in the US and NYC is somehow "flooded" with too many deaths b/c an urban agglomeration that experiences hundreds of deaths a day can't handle some fraction of a 2K death toll over a 1 month or so period? That's complete BS. Even the most hard headed of individuals have to realize that surely?? Come on

Any death is tragic. Any. But we don't understand enough yet and we are speculating with mathematical future models too early when we don't even know how many of these are comorbid or what if it existed for the last 2+ years as other virologists warned about (and the CDC has unexplained increases for flu related illnesses in recent years). That means we might have had it for 1yr, 2yrs.... and just didn't know until someone got interested enough to sample genome data from a tissue sample. It wouldn't be odd for that take time being that the symptoms look like many colds or flus.

Also, why are elderly affected?? Most colds infect elderly and infants (or young) at similar rates. Due to immuno deficiencies. In the elderly it's compromised from age. In the infants and very young (under 7-8) it's not developed enough. It seems highly plausible that a major reason it affects elderly at a pronounced rate (but not *only* them) is they are the most likely to have comorbid illnesses or complications. That also means many deaths could be classified incorrectly as SARS-COV-2 when it was really something else but bc they tested positive they call the deaths COVID related. And yes any age can have comorbidity, even 5yrs old, 10, whatever, but it's far far far more likely to be those at advanced age. This is why early detection and testing en masse are also important. That means the likelihood of death is low for those people bc the other comorbid conditions can be kept in check.

At any rate this idea that even 5000 (if it were even that high) is enough to cause travelling morgues as if your driving across some 28 days later wasteland is fucking absurd. When 8000 in a single day, every single day, in the US die? Every single day, 8000 deaths. And you think NYC can't handle some fraction of 2000 over an entire month? That's total nonsense.

It's not that novel virus isn't a concern. Of course it is. But some of this is complete and total hyperbole. Even in the other thread it was assumed I was saying old people don't matter. I never ever ever ever said that nor would I. Never. Never never never. But just b/c we don't want to wreck the global economy and truly cause a real dystopia by our social viral actions (*not* the biological virus) does not mean our elderly are being thrown aside. Sheesh the vast majority with early detection recover.

My arguments were just saying either way we cannot continue this way (near total shutdown). No way, not this way. And there is simply no way we can wait for antivirals unless we get super super lucky with one of the 60+ in trials now. We might. We might. Really. But it's 50/50 at this point on that one. But no way can we continue with stimulus stuff and shutdown mode (we have to figure *some* way to get the system partially back on track even if that means serious federal mandating of work from home, sanitizing policies for mailing & distribution centers, elderly stay home order, no festivals or groups over certain size, plus additional enforced sanitizing rules still, etc....). Something. *SOMETHING* to get people back to work. 3+Mn filed unemployment last week alone?? Fucking kidding me?? $2TR a month stim package and that's not even enough? Drastically shrinking GDP with a massive trickle down effect? National debt growing by $1-2Tr PER MONTH at this rate?? No possible way. 8-12wks out max. No way. Any further and we risk "near virtual" permanent global economic damage (not just the US). Many many years at the very least. Now, we *can* work virtually in large part. This is the upside to the modern era. But millions upon millions can't, they don't have those kind of jobs. It's not me I'm worried about btw. Do u think mine is affected? I'm a fucking computer scientist. Sheesh. Of course I can work from home (that's practically all I do anyway). So before u call me selfish or uncaring please think for a moment. And had this happened even in the 1980s? Total collapse already. Social and economic collapse would be underway already. That's the saving grace to todays social viral phenoms. It's a real fucked situation people. But more of it may end up being caused by the social virus than the biological one unfortunately.

Good luck all. Let's hope for the best.

[Ben Rhimene]

But no way can we continue with stimulus stuff and shutdown mode (we have to figure *some* way to get the system partially back on track even if that means serious federal mandating of work from home, sanitizing policies are mailing centers, elderly stay home order, no festivals or groups over certain size, plus additional enforced sanitizing rules still, etc....). Something. 2TR a month? Drastically shrinking GDP with a massive trickle down effect? National debt growing by 1-2Tr PER MONTH at this rate?? No possible way. 8-12wks out max. No way. Any further and we risk "virtually" permanent economic damage (not just to the US either).

That's the interesting part for me-when do the economic considerations outweigh the social ones? I will be careful with my wording, but so far the decisionmakers have put the social above the economic. Has that worked? Impossible to say because we do not know what it would have looked like with a milder quarantine (or none). But the death rate has been low. And from a numbers perspective more people die in auto wrecks annually. It seems like society would not have been this bad if only the high risk folks were quarantined...then THEIR stimulus could have been much higher while the rest of proceeded with more caution but not an economic shutdown. Sometimes treating everybody the same is NOT the best approach.

I heard some state unemployment websites crashed due to new filers. I see all the closed stores commuting to work. I read posts of providers stopping or adjusting schedules and services and guys sitting on the sideline. I do wonder if the cure is worse than the disease for most...

[mathguy]

That's the interesting part for me-when do the economic considerations outweigh the social ones? I will be careful with my wording, but so far the decisionmakers have put the social above the economic. Has that worked? Impossible to say because we do not know what it would have looked like with a milder quarantine (or none). But the death rate has been low. And from a numbers perspective more people die in auto wrecks annually. It seems like society would not have been this bad if only the high risk folks were quarantined...then THEIR stimulus could have been much higher while the rest of proceeded with more caution but not an economic shutdown. Sometimes treating everybody the same is NOT the best approach.

I heard some state unemployment websites crashed due to new filers. I see all the closed stores commuting to work. I read posts of providers stopping or adjusting schedules and services and guys sitting on the sideline. I do wonder if the cure is worse than the disease for most...

Great points Ben. Especially about the unemployment systems. Thanks for being objective too. I appreciate it.

Oh I edited some of my answer toward the bottom section to clarify about the unemployment & couple other items before I saw your post so you may want to reread my edit.

[Tx33_averageJoe]

The social distancing has only been to slow it down and give an amount of control to the public so they feel like they can do something. They needed something to slow it so the hospitals ect don't get overloaded to the point where we become another Italy, having to triage who lives and who dies and losing alot of health workers in the process. This last 2 weeks bought the govt time to play catch up and get logistics in place. Stimulus was to ensure a fresh injection of cash when they do lift it.

Now it is to the point though where you have to do something with the economy or it will end up worse than the virus. We have a flexible economy but it has its limits until it will break and if that happens you'd see the modern day version of the 1929 stock market crash but much worse due to the interconnection of various micro economies now. You'd see widespread bartering, breakdown of govt and social services, followed by anarchy in worst case scenarios. Like Billy Bob Thornton said in Armageddon; "Basically the worst parts of the bible" All the stimulus in the world won't help if there is nothing open for people to spend it on.

Just my opinion on the matter but if you think about it, it makes sense.

[chloevankatie]

It's ok. It started with me asking my hobby friends how they are holding up. Right now, the hobby isn't affected for those not taking precautions. Due to strip clubs and AMP's closed. But for us who are taking time off, limiting everything. And those of us who have absolutely retired like CVK, yes the hit is hard.

Escorts have to wait till the economy bounces back as I think we will see. It's my fear that we will feel it so greatly. I had such plans for 2020 now feeling selfish and my heart hurts for people in general. It's the oldest occupation in the world, it's just hard to see others suffer as the world we live in most households are 2 paychecks from being homeless

I am going to start a home based business.

I am home googling how to make toilet paper, lol.