The curve is huge, I'm getting a little scared. How are you holding up?

[Ben Rhimene]

I don't think it's as weather oriented as it is population density. That's key I think--population density.

Once the poor countries catch it, the numbers will devastate.

Seems to be a combination. South American countries, enjoying summer, seem to be avoiding big numbers, with Chile at 5,116 cases. Brasil, with some hugely congested cities with lower class slum areas, leads at almost 14k cases, but that is pretty low, and if you've ever been to SP or RDJ you know how congested it is. As they go into their cooler months it will be interesting to see what happens.

Africa showing something similar. The more advanced nations with better infrastructure, and thus more movement of people, are showing the most cases. South Africa (RSA), Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, hit hardest but the poorer nations not so bad. Some of that is likely lower reporting ability, but a country with primarily remote villages is self-isolating by its very structure.

Pakistan at 4k and India at 5k are the ones I think bear watching.

[pumpernickel]

Seems to be a combination. South American countries, enjoying summer, seem to be avoiding big numbers, with Chile at 5,116 cases. Brasil, with some hugely congested cities with lower class slum areas, leads at almost 14k cases, but that is pretty low, and if you've ever been to SP or RDJ you know how congested it is. As they go into their cooler months it will be interesting to see what happens.

Africa showing something similar. The more advanced nations with better infrastructure, and thus more movement of people, are showing the most cases. South Africa (RSA), Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, hit hardest but the poorer nations not so bad. Some of that is likely lower reporting ability, but a country with primarily remote villages is self-isolating by its very structure.

Pakistan at 4k and India at 5k are the ones I think bear watching.

The poor countries numbers you can't take at face value. They are severely understaffed and lack of testing. Can't confirm cases with limited testing.

[Ben Rhimene]

The poor countries numbers you can't take at face value. They are severely understaffed and lack of testing. Can't confirm cases with limited testing.

I have agreed with that concern in multiple posts...but they should be consistently inconsistent, for those very reasons.

Which is why we need to watch their progress...

[whatdoIknow3]

This is stimulus on steroids unlike 2007 crisis when only big banks got the green. Even single member LLC (which I believe a lot of you are here) will get $$ if you navigate the system. So, everyone is set for up to 2 months as step 1 for now. If things stay crazy longer, more $$ is on the way. That doesn't affect value of the dollar as all governments around the world are doing the same thing. So, dollar will stay strong. In fact dollar might get stronger as when crisis hits the world, US is the safe refuge.

But at some point governments might capitulate around the world and let the world just get back to work as you can't keep people captive when most of them will survive the virus anyways.

Only consequence of this is, stock market will rise as there will be too much dollar floating around, which is good for everyone.

[whatdoIknow3]

A $1200 stimulus check I think will grow to a bigger amount. No evictions filed before April 19th as time goes by I think it will push out more.

The amount of + test have spiked from people who were infected in the beginning of March. They are even saying Mardi Gras time. I'm just hoping in the coming weeks there are less and less as so many people stay home.

I'm so afraid for our economy right now, people layed off left and right. How can our government compete with this monster.

Even though stimulus checks are supposed to only be for the working people, I know it has and or will take a chunk away from providers. And I'm hopeful most providers do file taxes, as we are part of society as well. I myself am a bit concerned for my fellow providers. How are you holding up ladies?

Opinions please...

This is stimulus on steroids unlike 2007 crisis when only big banks got the green. Even single member LLC (which I believe a lot of you are here) will get $$ if you navigate the system. So, everyone is set for up to 2 months as step 1 for now. If things stay crazy longer, more $$ is on the way. That doesn't affect value of the dollar as all governments around the world are doing the same thing. So, dollar will stay strong. In fact dollar might get stronger as when crisis hits the world, US is the safe refuge.

But at some point governments might capitulate around the world and let the world just get back to work as you can't keep people captive when most of them will survive the virus anyways.

Only consequence of this is, stock market will rise as there will be too much dollar floating around, which is good for everyone.

[Ben Rhimene]

That doesn't affect value of the dollar as all governments around the world are doing the same thing. So, dollar will stay strong. In fact dollar might get stronger as when crisis hits the world, US is the safe refuge.

Only consequence of this is, stock market will rise as there will be too much dollar floating around, which is good for everyone.

While I do not necessarily disagree with either of your conclusions I think your foundational statements are misguided. I agree the USA is historically a safe haven, but that has been with respect to geopolitical conflict. Cuban missile crisis, Arab/Israeli wars, Iraq. This is a medical crisis. The numbers suggest we are losing vis-a-vis our peers...higher infection numbers, etc. I am more cautious about concluding because we are better in one type of crisis that we are therefore better in a different type of crisis. Put simply, I don't believe Usain Bolt won a marathon or Kenyan marathon runners won sprints...

Except for pure day trading the stock market is not a vehicle for short-term gains and isn't a bellwether for the overall economy. Yes, there is pent up capital now, and it will go into the stock market. That will initially drive the bid/ask up overall. But that is only good for people who made good investments. A TON of money went into dot.com industry. The Google and Apple buyers did just fine, but far more got wiped out. Pretty sure there are people in this town who still have shares of Enron sitting in their portfolio. I would be careful putting too much meaning in the initial surge of investment; the real impact will be a few years down the road when it is clear if it was wisely invested or not.