So are we going to shelter in place tomorrow?

[soniczed]

even when my job is considered essential since i do dental equipment and dental office service calls and network support im staying home just in case i will only do emergency calls
im 40 years old and a smoker with big sinus problems so i do not want to even think about getting infected so i hope you guys stay safe and well.
ill stay home and away from hobbie as long as possible for my own well being and my family's

[mathguy]

My mother was just telling me she is getting scared because prior to this it was only on the news, and now people she is friends with are sick.

Chloe I would tend to attribute much of it to psychosomatics. Everyone is suffering from that as we hear doom & gloom constantly. Lots of it is likely real, but lots is also likely psychosomatic. Many of those probably end up being other colds (one of the other 4 CoVs), flu, other rhinovirus, allergies, asthma, strep or bronchitis and so on. After all, we still have all of those things too. So just keep in that mind.

I do not believe we have 420 cases. I believe we probably have more like 4200 cases, due to the lack of testing.

I think your number is about 10%. Too many asymptomatic, etc. We will NEVER know cuz testing levels are paltry.

I wouldn't venture a guess at the specific number except to say that I think both are wrong and the true number is significantly north of that.

However, think of it this way. Let's say your 4900 example were correct (justHarris County). If we have 2 deaths in Harris and the reality is ~5000 people are/were infected that means the hypothetical IFR is now .04% (2/4900 = ~.0004 or roughly .04% - seasonal flu for example is 2.5x more fatal in *THAT* case).

The point of this is to give some comfort in knowing that as the number of unknown cases rise & deaths don't follow that exponential curve the mortality rate continues to drop. That's why I keep reinforcing that idea.

My guess, though I really don't want to put a quantified number on it yet, is that there are far more than what you suggested & they're asymptomatic, immune, weathering through it due to milder symptoms, think it's allergies, asthma, etc.... Many couldn't get tested anyway b/c as Ben stated the testing is abysmally low. :/

Note that this is all an inductive reasoning syllogism. I'm not at all declaring it to be a formal deduction based on definitive argument, which is why I'm careful to say, "*IF* the above premise is correct we could conclude it's likely that our IFR is much lower than it appears based on currently confirmed cases".

[chloevankatie]

Chloe I would tend to attribute much of it to psychosomatics. Everyone is suffering from that as we hear doom & gloom constantly. Lots of it is likely real, but lots is also likely psychosomatic. Many of those probably end up being other colds (one of the other 4 CoVs), flu, other rhinovirus, allergies, asthma, strep or bronchitis and so on. After all, we still have all of those things too. So just keep in that mind.





I wouldn't venture a guess at the specific number except to say that I think both are wrong and the true number is significantly north of that.

However, think of it this way. Let's say your 4900 example were correct (justHarris County). If we have 2 deaths in Harris and the reality is ~5000 people are/were infected that means the hypothetical IFR is now .04% (2/4900 = ~.0004 or roughly .04% - seasonal flu for example is 2.5x more fatal in *THAT* case).

The point of this is to give some comfort in knowing that as the number of unknown cases rise & deaths don't follow that exponential curve the mortality rate continues to drop. That's why I keep reinforcing that idea.

My guess, though I really don't want to put a quantified number on it yet, is that there are far more than what you suggested & they're asymptomatic, immune, weathering through it due to milder symptoms, think it's allergies, asthma, etc.... Many couldn't get tested anyway b/c as Ben stated the testing is abysmally low. :/

Note that this is all an inductive reasoning syllogism. I'm not at all declaring it to be a formal deduction based on definitive argument, which is why I'm careful to say, "*IF* the above premise is correct we could conclude it's likely that our IFR is much lower than it appears based on currently confirmed cases".

THEY HAVE TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID-19!

How are they psychosomatic????

THEY ARE SICK!

Just stop already.

I didn't even read the rest of your post. I feel like you are really coming off as rude. Previously you were going on this campaign of how it's just old and sick who are going to die, like they are just disposable people. And how it's just a cold and young people don't need to worry. You couldn't be more wrong. I already posted statistics that 60% of ICU cases are YOUNG PEOPLE. Because of people like you, there are youngs folks hearing the message and partying at spring break. It's absolutely dangerous the messages you keep pumping out.

According to you-
Old and sick people are expendable.
Young people don't need to worry.
My mom's friends are psychosomatic even though that have tested positive.


If this isn't such a big deal, then why are 700 people a day dying in Italy? Temporary morgues in the streets of New York? Why are there not enough respirators for people in ICU? You are making up a fantasy about a disease and making up stories about something you literally know nothing about, so you can downplay it and tell everyone nothing is happening.


My mom's friend are ACTUALLY sick. Do you know how scary that is? Could my mom be next? Thanks for making a PSYCHOSOMATIC observation and being completely insensitive.

I am going to put you on ignore through the rest of this pandemic.

[Hottest bbw tuma queen]

Ummmm ya this is making people crazy!
The last person I seen was like I'm not scared of this I dont think it's a big deal but I'm like why did u bring the hugest bottle of hand sanitizer and using so much u can bathe in it! Like ya u definitely wont get sick like that but so much alcohol in it will u pass a DUI test lol! I known him for 4 years it was cute better safe than sorry

I babysit for my sister and her husband she told me her husband had to go get tested sense his job is being in people's houses it came back negative even though he wasnt showing symptoms and that's crazy because there is people that need a test n cant get one

[Italia DiBella]

^^^ Just an FYI
New studies on people who have tested positive for covid19 have no symptoms and or are just losing their sense of smell and taste.
(That could be why your family member was tested)

This virus is new, not "the flu" so as each day comes there are new discoveries to be found.

They (Scientist) still don't know how long it could stay dormant with no symptoms, it's too new of a virus for true statistics.

As for your friend with the huge bottle of sanitizer.
lol

Hand sanitizer or bathing with it will not do diddly doodoo except make your skin dry.
He must not be too scared?

Stay well!
Thanks for sharing

[IlikeKittyandTitty]

I miss you... barack trump

[Hottest bbw tuma queen]

Idk if it's TRUE or not someone said it depends on your blood type if u will get sick or not either way I'm not smoking anymore so if I do get it maybe it wont be super bad

[Phoenixx]

Idk if it's TRUE or not someone said it depends on your blood type if u will get sick or not either way I'm not smoking anymore so if I do get it maybe it wont be super bad

Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility

it hasn't been peer reviewed, so if you're type A, don't freak....

[Hottest bbw tuma queen]

Another silly story I seen on Facebook if u dont have yeast u can make this sour dough starter to feed your bread sense I have nothing going on I spend 5 days making it and 2 days making this bread so a week total and I'm like ya it smells pretty good well survive this and I bit it and my teeth were hurting it was rock hard n gewy inside I'm like ya we wont survive this!
Laughter is the best medicine all I can do to keep my sanity

[mathguy]

THEY HAVE TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID-19!

How are they psychosomatic????

THEY ARE SICK!

I don't know why you are upset. You didn't say they were positive for SARS-CoV-2. The thing is a lot of people could experience psychosomatic effects right now. I have myself. So has my mom. Other friends. It can easily happen when people are scared.

I didn't even read the rest of your post. I feel like you are really coming off as rude. Previously you were going on this campaign of how it's just old and sick who are going to die, like they are just disposable people. And how it's just a cold and young people don't need to worry. You couldn't be more wrong.

What do you mean rude? I'm worried about my own parents. Its one of the reason my kids can't visit right now from their moms b/c my parents live with *me* - I take care of them. My mom has asthma and mild emphysema. My dad has numerous issues. Why do you think I said that stuff Chloe? I never said they were disposable? No way. I'm not against you here. Why are you so upset.

I already posted statistics that 60% of ICU cases are YOUNG PEOPLE. Because of people like you, there are youngs folks hearing the message and partying at spring break. It's absolutely dangerous the messages you keep pumping out.

No, no. That's not correct Chloe. The target group and majority of cases are elderly. This is quite obvious. The ER and hospital issues are also likely (even with certain elderly) due to people being panicked. Going when they shouldn't go. It's not dangerous to stop panic. What is dangerous is to break down our economy to a wasteland that those of our age, our children and eventually our children's children may not recover from (yes it *could* get *that* bad if things stay this way). All I have said is that it's either not as deadly OR if it is .5%-1% (that's what the true numbers look like even on the *bad* side of things) then there is a time where we have to consider weighing the cost of creating a global apocalypse over what more amounts to a social viral phenomenon than a biological one.

According to you-
Old and sick people are expendable.
Young people don't need to worry.
My mom's friends are psychosomatic even though that have tested positive.

I never ever said those things Chloe. That's extremely unfair. I have been quite clear about my position. My own mother and father are at risk, so are other elderly friends of theirs. I would never wish that. I never said young don't need to worry though I do think the panic is a bit over the top.

Under 20 are virtually immune (in the "grand scheme" - don't go finding some report of some small number of people - of course in all illnesses people of ALL ages will get sick or die - same as with the flu or any other pathogen - I mean in the grand scheme of 8Bn people). The vast vast majority are over 60. It's not that they are disposable. I would never say that. I specifically posted against that idea in fact. Why would you say this??

I don't believe the numbers are correct though. If it's this contagious then many many many more people have it, many people who test positive have zero symptoms or are barely sick. There could be countless millions who have it now or already got over it. The point is the mortality would be very low in that case and the panic would be unnecessary. Without testing millions and millions we can't know. Just testing elderly OR obviously symptomatic is not helping b/c it doesn't tell us anything about the pervasiveness of any disease in a population.

However, my other point has been that we do have to weigh the costs even if it truly does turn out to be the .5%-1% rate that we see from "confirmed cases". Even if it means instituting some kind of work from home where possible, elderly stay home, no festivals over certain limit, institute cleaning policies and sanitation before entering in certain distribution centers and online stores, for mailing things, etc... so we can back to some semblance of normal life or else we will hand our generation and our children a dystopia. Do you realize that 2.2Tr dollars is roughly 1 month of our GDP? And our national debt is 20Tr? In six months we will have increased an already maxed out national debt by a full 50% to nearly $30TR or so if we try to "wait for antivirals". We simply cannot do that. It's impossible. Total collapse. I assure you.

If this isn't such a big deal, then why are 700 people a day dying in Italy? Temporary morgues in the streets of New York? Why are there not enough respirators for people in ICU? You are making up a fantasy about a disease and making up stories about something you literally know nothing about, so you can downplay it and tell everyone nothing is happening.

Italy is a diff story for many reason Chloe. I've explained that. I'm a scientist so I don't know why you would say "something I know nothing about". In addition I have daily calls/debates with a couple friends on the task force (one of the task force) studying the genome. They are molecular biologists and biochemists, Ph.D research scientists. I'm a computer scientist who has helped one of them build their bioinformatics tools and do work on their genetics/bioinformatics dissertation for their doctoral research. I do know a little of what I'm talking about here

Chloe, I never ever said nothing is happening. The issues are many though. Many, many issues with the current stats, panic, media, testing, etc....

For example, yet another issue is comorbidity. Many of you may not know what that means without looking it up but it means a person has multiple infections at the same time. There is research also indicating that a decent number of people who get classified as a SARS-CoV-2 death actually died of a comorbid related infection such as Streptococcus pneumonia Comorbid bacterial infections causing higher deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2

That's just one other issue. If many of the deaths are comorbid then again it means most elderly without underlying issues will recover. Most people in general. We also don't know is the disease is far more rampant which would also mean the mortality (and hence the panic - that's why mortality is important) is much lower. Additionally there is some concern that this could have already existed in past seasons. The CDC reported globally as many as 50K-250K plus deaths globally than expected in recent years and virologist have warned about the existing CoV's mutating since 2015.

It's at least plausible that this could have been going on for a full year or two and that's why those CDC "flu related" numbers are much higher than expected. We didn't panic then though b/c we just treated it normally. Thought it was flu. Yes, is it sad that people die? Well holy shit, yes it is! It is for anything though. And do you realize that as many as 675,000 people die of the flu worldwide (those numbers higher recently for some "unknown" reason).

I don't just whistle dixxie about this stuff Chloe. I have a vast wealth of information and personal resources directly on at least one of the teams (in addition I have a friend looking into researching necroscopic tissue with a medical researcher at Mt Sinai in NYC to find out if we can determine if this may have existed in past seasons). I am NOT spouting nonsense.

Either way though, whether these hypotheses (the 2 or 3 I've presented over time) are correct or not and it turns out to be closer to the regional .5% to 1% mortality after all we still have to consider the fact that we can't continue this until antivirals. There is simply no way without handing our generation and our children's a completely broken nonexistent economy that makes the '29 Depression look like a fun b-day party. Seriously. That's my biggest concern.

My mom's friend are ACTUALLY sick. Do you know how scary that is? Could my mom be next? Thanks for making a PSYCHOSOMATIC observation and being completely insensitive.

Never ever did I mean to be insensitive. I'm worried about my own parents. I can certainly see how you are too. I'm not entirely sure you understand what I was saying b/c you have clearly gotten very angry and I'm not at all sure why.

Whatever I did or said to make you think I don't care about your mom, the elderly, my own parents, etc... I'm truly sorry. I did not mean that.

However, I really wish people could understand what this social viral panic phenomenon (one of the downsides of our modern era - and I'm a computer scientist saying that too! lol) is going to do to us if we continue this way. We simply can't. No matter what the actual mortality ends up being, whether this existed 2 years and we just didn't know it, whether it's not deadly b/c 50Mn people have it, whether 30% of cases in elderly were incorrectly labeled as SARS-CoV-2 due to comorbid issues or not, or IF it turns out to be 1 in 100-200 (.5%-1%) we have to get back to some semblance of life. We simply cannot wait for antivirals. There is no way. Our economy will die. And when I say die I mean *die*. Do you want to live in a world like that? Or your mom? I don't want my mom's last 10-15yrs to be a wasteland. And you know what? She wouldn't want it for me or her grandchildren either. That's my point about all this regardless of what the mortality really is or isn't.

Finally, at any rate, I truly apologize if you feel I have been insensitive. That is not at all what I have been trying to do. I have a mother and father too (that happen to be high risk). My own kids can't visit b/c I take care of my parents and it's too dangerous. Do you know how that makes me feel? My parents too? Trust me, I am not being insensitive Chloe. I am just being objective and real about the fact that the stats are very wonky right now and regardless of the true stats (once we finally have enough data - hopefully VERY soon too) we simply can't continue like *this* (shutdown mode) for very long without creating total dystopia for possibly an entire generation of people. I am sorry that you thought I was being insensitive. I didn't mean to be.

[ck1942]

Lets chill this for a 24 chill.