Thoughts about the market? Go long.. 5 years +.
Invest in strong companies that pay dividends... i.e. Apple, Microsoft, Walmart. Shell, Nike, and Boeing at the right price.
I would invest 10-20% percent of what you can spare, and do your best to not watch it more than every few weeks.
Last edited by RamTheJam; 03-27-2020 at 12:54 PM.
Originally Posted by RamTheJam
Good advice!
Keeping the dividend yield in mind when analyzing returns is definitely important, but you have to be careful and look at underlying cash flows. Shell has not cut their dividend in 80 years, which is awesome. But they have also been selling assets like Bill O'Brien and issuing debt to fund those dividends recently. That is ok in dealing with short-term issues but can be problematic if it continues.
Speculate the amount you're willing to lose and never see again.
Invest the amount you're comfortable losing.
A good blend for beginners: invest 60-80% S&P mirroring etf like VOO via Vanguard.
Other 5-10% bonds
Other 5-10% dividend based ETFs liken VIG or VYM
Extra if you want to speculatile and try; go for it. Play with you don't mind seeing fall to $0, and hold till eternity until it's green enough for your taste. Don't flip out.
I invest 50%/spec 50%
I look at p/e ratio, market cap, and the curve. Like some folks started buying today. Really, the WoW was still heavily green for these stocks. They are still far from the floor.
I'd watch for more falls on Cruise lines despite no stimulus aid, hotels, Goldman, Boa, Microsoft, Berk. b, plug, vivant solar, etc.
One strategy is take 5-10% of what you are speculating and every 5% or more dip, buy a piece.
I take this approach too. Treat it like you treat a trip to a casino...pick a set amount, put it where you feel comfortable. Do NOT run to the ATM and double down if you picked poorly.
That's right...nothing fundamentally flawed with cruise lines, airlines, hotels...this is a temporary hit.
The real players buy Berk A...
Haha, can't get there yet.
Notice I did not claim to be a real player myself!
I agree with the advice to invest for the long term and put a good portion of what you wish to invest into ETF's like those offered by Vanguard. If you're relatively young and will be working for awhile, I'd be all in stocks. As you get older, rebalance to hold bonds and/or cash.
Remember to diversify - US Large Caps (Growth stocks and Value Stocks), US Mid/Small Caps, Developed Foreign markets (eg Europe), Emerging Markets (eg SE Asia, India, etc). Vanguard has funds in each of these. You mentioned Buffett - he's strategy has been value (good companies with lower P/E).
I'd put another portion in REITs (either as an ETF or individual stocks). These have to pay out around 90% of their profit in dividends by law. With the demographics, I'd look at healthcare REITs
Then a smaller portion in speculative stocks. Now, I'd look at travel related stocks -- airlines, hotels, booking sites, etc. (I'd avoid cruise lines, their likely slow to recover, if at all. I've been buying Delta over the past few weeks (also pays a dividend). I suspect it will recover nicely in the next several months to a year or so for a nice gain. Not planning to hold it long term - make some money and sell (as don't think airlines are good long term holds). Played United the same way after 9/11 and worked out well.
If you decide to invest in individual companies, still try to diversify -- US Growth, US Value, etc. Cost average -- eg, if you want to invest $10K in COMPANY X, use 1/3 to take an initial position, 1/3 a bit later, then the final 1/3. Particularly in today's market with all the volatility. Don't try to time the market. Dividend payers a plus - make sure the yield isn't out of line with income so the dividend can be sustained. Companies that raise their dividend year over year (search Dividend Aristocrats).
Always remember in times like these nothing wrong with keeping plenty of cash. I try to keep 2 to 3 years of expenses in cash or near cash.
Half my $ is in 4 stocks, AAPL,FB,MSFT and GOOGL. Why? Because besides the fact they have great businesses they also have great Balance Sheets with after subtracting the debt between $56 Bil to $105 Bil in cash. They can easily ride this out and buy back shares at lower prices. Happy investing.
Paying for pussy is cheaper than getting it for free.
BBBJ ONLY (NO CBJ), DFK, DATY, 69, CIM(not a deal breaker), Mish, K9, SS, CG, RCG........ GFE wanted, I DO NOT give deposits for Meets
Moody's just came out with an analytical report on how they expect states to fare as a result of coronavirus. That article can be found here:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coron...154119387.html
For those who don't want to read but appreciate the lede:
8a3e3290-74eb-11ea-85cb-38399dfc00f0.jpg
Enjoy your weekend.
Because my last post wasn't depressing enough I thought I'd double down. I just read an article in The Economist which indicates that since mid-February global market value has been destroyed to the tune of $23 TRILLION. Insert your fave Mike Meyers meme here.
That is NOT a guess...that is looking at each bourse on the planet on a given day to see market value and doing the same thing again on a later date!!!
It is a bit hard to figure out a per person impact. After all, plenty of global poor do not play in the markets. On the other end, lots of institutional players do, some of it is your money but not all.
I get the gist of the post, market = bad, but can you translate this into kindergarten for me, Ben?
It would be easier if we were in a digitally monogamous relationship (or had a go pro and 6' ladder) but I will give it a shot...
IF you invest in the markets then you win with increases and lose with decreases. Most advanced countries have a bourse (market). So globally there is a shit ton of money invested. From folk like Fidelity to the lost souls of the recently closed thread.
When god flushes his toilet everything spins down. We look at NASDAQ etc but that is happening around the world.
KEY point...NOBODY loses $ unless they sell in a panic. If you hold onto you positions you have a paper loss, but still have chance for shares to rebound.
Main point is $23 TRILLION is a fuckload of paper losses, and society needs to see production return and lift stocks. That will take a real recovery, but because this is a fake (as in temporary and not systemic issue) crisis it is quite possible economy recovers in 2020. We have NEVER had a pandemic-incurred recession. This will be the first, but it will also be short-lived.
Make sense?
Well I thought we might be moving toward digital monogamy until you and Mathguy began seeing each other :(
But who am I to prevent a beautiful thing from happening?
With that being said, yes I get it. I think it's kinda the question I was getting at in the very beginning when I started this thread. I was worried about the market falling and where things were headed, why and how long. And so I understand that this is not systemic, but temporary. I am however concerned that if this lasts for an extended period of time, what long term damage we might see. Will markets collapse? Venezuela?
And I want to add to the other folks that have posted in this thread and I haven't responded to everyone, but I have learned a lot and done some googling of some of things people have suggested here. This has been a good thread because it's actually made me take a deeper look into my personal finances and make some decisions that I think will make me way more money in the long run, at least I hope so. One of the things I love about the gentlemen in the hobby community is that you guys are a treasure trove of fantastic information. This has been a great thread, despite the doom and gloom we are currently experiencing.
Last edited by chloevankatie; 04-04-2020 at 09:53 PM.
I felt we were too but MG is a tad compulsive, IMHO. He and I could have had a beautiful thing but for COVID and that's not my thing.
Happy to dive into it further, given its the day job (the market, that is) .
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